TLDR
- Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded Alphabet to Overweight, raising price target to $370 from $310
- Gemini’s market share jumped to over 20% from under 6% in 12 months, while ChatGPT fell to under 65% from 85%
- Alphabet briefly surpassed Apple in market cap this week, reaching $3.89 trillion for the first time since 2019
- Analysts believe Google’s integration of search, maps, and payment data gives Gemini a competitive edge
- Alphabet stock has climbed 66% over the past 12 months, now trading at 28.6 times forward earnings
Alphabet shares rose over 2% Wednesday as Wall Street analysts turned more bullish on Google’s position in the AI race. The company briefly overtook Apple in market value for the first time since 2019.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Deepak Mathivanan upgraded Alphabet to Overweight from Neutral Wednesday. The firm raised its price target to $370 from $310.
Shares traded at $324.51 in premarket hours Thursday, up 0.8%. The stock has gained 66% over the past year.
The upgrade comes as Google’s Gemini AI gains traction against OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Website traffic data from Similarweb shows Gemini now holds over 20% market share, up from less than 6% just one year ago.
ChatGPT’s share fell to under 65% from roughly 85% in the same period. OpenAI still leads with around 900 million weekly active users versus Gemini’s 650 million monthly active users.
But momentum appears to be shifting. Google launched its Nano Banana image tool in August and Gemini 3 model in November. Both releases attracted users away from competitors.
Google’s Data Advantage
Cantor analysts see Google pulling ahead as AI moves toward “practical usefulness” rather than just raw model intelligence. The company’s decade of search technology development gives it an edge.
Google can feed Gemini data from search, maps, and payment systems. This integration will matter more as AI agents become mainstream.
AI agents handle multistep tasks based on simple instructions. Users will likely stick with one assistant for these functions. Google’s data ecosystem positions Gemini as the more useful choice.
“Google’s unique competitive advantage in grounding user AI queries is likely to help the company advance these integrations in select categories, such as retail, more seamlessly,” Mathivanan wrote.
Market Cap Battle
Alphabet’s market cap hit $3.89 trillion Wednesday while Apple dropped to $3.86 trillion. The shift reflects investor confidence in Google’s AI strategy.
Jefferies analysts noted stronger engagement and rising downloads from AI features across Google’s consumer apps. They expect this momentum to drive long-term revenue growth.
Apple hasn’t launched a major AI platform since Apple Intelligence in 2024. The company appears to be falling behind in the AI race.
Alphabet has multiple revenue drivers working in its favor. Ad sales remain steady while cloud performance expands. AI product rollouts continue at a rapid pace.
The company is developing custom tensor processing units for AI computing. These chips target Nvidia’s dominance in the sector.
Alphabet now trades at 28.6 times forward earnings, up from its five-year average of 21.7 times. Cantor’s $370 price target assumes a 30 times price-to-earnings ratio based on blended fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates.
Alphabet shares climbed more than 2% Wednesday, pushing the company past Apple in total market value for the first time in seven years.
