TLDR:
- Ethereum market share assumptions increased to 85% from 70% as Layer 2 networks gain traction across DeFi sectors
- Revenue projections adjusted upward to $130 billion for 2030 driven by stablecoin volume and blob fee mechanisms
- Circulating supply estimate reduced to 95 million ETH from 100.1 million due to staking and fee burn dynamics
- Terminal valuation multiple raised to 40x reflecting Ethereum’s role as global settlement infrastructure layer
A revised analysis of VanEck’s Ethereum valuation model suggests the asset could reach between $55,000 and $65,000 by 2030.
The update reflects structural changes in Ethereum’s market position and revenue generation since the original forecast.
Analyst Joseph Young shared the recalculated projections on social media, noting substantial shifts in key metrics that drive the model’s output.
Market Share and Revenue Projections Show Major Growth
The original VanEck model from 2024 estimated Ethereum’s base case price at approximately $22,000 for 2030. That forecast assumed Ethereum would maintain a 70% market share across decentralized finance, stablecoins, and tokenization sectors.
Current data indicates the network now commands over 60% dominance in these categories. Layer 2 solutions built on Ethereum have accelerated adoption rates. The updated model adjusts market share assumptions to 85% based on this trajectory.
Revenue projections have also shifted upward from the initial $78 billion estimate for 2030. Stablecoin transaction volumes now exceed $8 trillion per quarter across Ethereum and its Layer 2 networks.
Blob fees introduced through recent upgrades generate additional income streams. Real-world asset tokenization has emerged as a significant revenue source. The revised model increases the 2030 revenue target to approximately $130 billion.
Supply dynamics present another variable that affects price calculations. VanEck originally projected 100.1 million ETH in circulation by 2030.
Higher staking participation rates and increased blob fee burns have reduced supply expectations.
The updated analysis revises the 2030 supply figure down to 95 million ETH. This reduction amplifies the price impact of projected cash flows.
Valuation Multiple Reflects Expanded Network Function
The terminal multiple applied to Ethereum’s cash flows represents how the market values the network’s future earnings.
VanEck’s original model used a 33x multiple based on Ethereum’s role as a Layer 1 blockchain. The network has since evolved beyond basic smart contract functionality.
Ethereum now processes settlement for stablecoins, decentralized finance protocols, and tokenized assets.
Joseph Young’s analysis suggests the terminal multiple should increase to 40x. This adjustment accounts for Ethereum’s position as infrastructure for global financial settlement.
The network handles clearing operations for multiple asset classes. Institutional adoption of Ethereum for settlement continues to expand.
Ethereum currently trades at $3,085.41 with daily volume exceeding $6.9 billion. The updated forecast model applies VanEck’s original methodology with refreshed inputs.
The calculation divides projected 2030 cash flows by circulating supply, then multiplies by the terminal valuation multiple. Using current market conditions and growth trajectories, this produces the $55,000 to $65,000 range.
