Is Bitcoin Repeating Its Darkest Bear Market History?

Bitcoin outperforms past bear cycles, but analysts warn a 2026 convergence near $35K could lead to a deeper drop despite current strength.

Bitcoin’s current bear market is ahead of previous cycles in performance, but analysts caution that a deeper decline may still occur later in 2026.

Bitcoin Tracking Above Previous Bear Cycles

Bitcoin has fallen 32% from its all-time high of over $126,000, which was reached in early October, 2025. In earlier cycles, losses at this stage were larger, ranging from 43% to 66%. This shows that the current cycle has been less severe so far compared to 2014, 2018, and 2022.

However, this stronger position may not hold. Past cycles also saw periods of stability before a steep fall near the end. CryptoCon, a market analyst, compared past cycles and noted that they tend to follow different paths early on, but later align just before reaching their final lows.

Here’s this year’s Bitcoin bear market lined up with others (2014, 2018, and 2022).

The common thought is that the bear market drawdown is decreasing each cycle, and that’s been the trend so far. -86%, -84%, -77%.

Bitcoin is even ahead now of where it has been at the same point… pic.twitter.com/TxCeUri5wH

— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) January 28, 2026

Based on this pattern, the chart shows a potential convergence point in September 2026, where Bitcoin’s price is expected to reach $35,000. This is the level where past cycles began their final drop. CryptoCon stated that “only the final drop really seems to matter,” pointing to this moment as a critical stage in the bear market.

If this cycle continues to follow previous ones, Bitcoin could reach a low between $28,000 and $17,000 between October and November 2026. The timing also aligns with the Halving Cycles Theory, which forecasts a bottom between November 2026 and January 2027.

Recent Price Action and Market Volatility

At press time, BTC trades around $88,000 with a daily trading volume of over $49 billion. Over the past 24 hours, the price fell by 1.5%, and over the past week, it declined by almost 2.5% (per CoinGecko’s data).

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Yesterday saw heightened volatility. BTC crossed $90,000 twice but pulled back quickly. After the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, Bitcoin held above $89,000. However, the move triggered widespread liquidations. More than 120,000 traders were forced out of positions, with combined losses of around $350 million.

Analysts Point to Conflicting Signals

Some market watchers expect a correction soon.

“If the 4-year cycle is still in play, $BTC will dump to $30,000 in February,” wrote Chiefy.

Others are focused on long-term data. Kapoor Kshitiz noted that Binance Reserve Cost has moved to $62,000, a level that has acted as a bottom during past bear phases. Bitcoin has not yet revisited this level since ETF approval.

On-chain data shows the share of BTC held at a loss is starting to rise again. This trend appeared early in bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022. While this does not confirm a final bottom, it may show the early stages of a longer downturn.

At the same time, long-term holders have shifted back to accumulation. CryptosRus said, “This looks less like a top… and more like consolidation before continuation.” Realized Cap has also reached new highs, suggesting a steady inflow of capital.