Questions are already surfacing over whether Bitcoin is still in the expansion phase that many market participants assume it is. However, a crypto expert opted for a conservative stance, arguing that when Bitcoin is analyzed through traditional cycle theory and macroeconomic indicators, the primary cycle may already be complete.
This crypto expert, Tony Severino, challenged popular bullish claims from “snake oil salesmen” and instead pointed to economic data and historical patterns that show the Bitcoin cycle has already transitioned into a different phase.
PMI And ISM Datan Shows Where Bitcoin Is
According to Tony Severino, Bitcoin’s bullish cycle is already over, and analysts saying otherwise are pushing a fairy tale that may or may not come true. Severino’s outlook is based on the U.S. ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index, which he views as a reliable macro gauge for cyclical behavior.
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The PMI data shown in the chart below highlights a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows, which is a signal of a weakening manufacturing environment. According to Severino, real cycles are measured from trough to trough, not from speculative projections of future upside. From that perspective, the current PMI structure means that the cycle has already peaked and is now rolling over.
At the time of writing, this index is sitting around 47.9. Severino warned that a sustained move below the 46 level would change the PMI from a local pullback into a more pronounced intermediate downtrend. A drop beneath 41.6 would carry even more serious implications, as that level would fall below the COVID-era low.
Such a move would leave only extreme historical comparisons, including conditions last seen during the 2007-2009 Great Financial Crisis or the stagflation period of the 1970s and early 1980s. Therefore, this macro backdrop directly challenges the idea that Bitcoin is on the verge of a guaranteed new bullish phase.
Severino also took direct aim at popular Bitcoin valuation models that compare BTC to gold or rely on long-term projections detached from economic reality. The current reality is that Bitcoin is lagging behind gold and silver, which are attracting consistent inflows in contrast to Bitcoin’s show of fatigue around $80,000.
Bullish Conviction To Bearish Targets
Severino’s current stance is notable because it is a significant difference from his outlook before the current cycle began, when he was very bullish on Bitcoin. His recent analysis, shown in the chart below, shows Bitcoin breaking below a moving average on the monthly candlestick timeframe. This is notable because similar breakdowns in previous years were followed by drawdowns averaging around 50%.
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The chart highlights multiple instances where Bitcoin suffered declines of 40% to over 60% after losing this type of technical support. Based on that historical behavior, Severino has floated a downside target of at least $45,000 before another bullish reversal.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com