As the conflict involving Iran drags on and global energy supplies risk prolonged disruption, most financial assets are likely to behave like risk assets, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone in a recent interview with Cointelegraph.
Despite major price swings across commodities, stock market volatility has remained relatively low, a divergence McGlone considers unsustainable. Historically, such imbalances tend to resolve through increased volatility in equities — often during broader market corrections.
That unusual volatility dynamic is also showing up in gold, a market traditionally viewed as a safe haven.
“Right now, 180-day volatility on gold is almost 2.5 times that of the S&P 500,” McGlone said. “So it’s no longer a store of value.”
In the interview, McGlone also discusses why Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market may be acting as a leading indicator for global risk assets. With the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index already significantly down from its peak, he argues that crypto could be signaling a potential downturn in traditional markets.
The macro backdrop, he suggests, increasingly resembles past periods of stress, including the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis, when energy prices spiked before sharply reversing during a global economic slowdown.
McGlone also shares his outlook on oil prices, interest rates, and the role of US Treasuries, which he still views as one of the few assets that could benefit if volatility rises and economic growth slows.
Could the current oil shock trigger a broader market correction? And what does it mean for Bitcoin, stocks, and the global economy?
Watch the full interview with Mike McGlone to hear his full macro outlook and market predictions.
This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.