Zooming out, if you had to pick between metals and risk assets, the choice used to be obvious.
From a technical standpoint, metals have been holding the upper hand over risk assets like Bitcoin [BTC].
So far this year, gold (XAU) is up roughly 6.8%, while BTC has seen about a 10.65% correction, suggesting that on higher timeframes, metals have remained structurally stronger than risk assets.
But the bigger question now is whether this dynamic is starting to shift. As the chart below shows, investor risk appetite is accelerating rapidly. Over the last four weeks, inflows into risky assets have exceeded safe-asset inflows by a record $220 billion.
To put this into perspective, during the 2020 pandemic shock, safe assets attracted $500 billion+ in inflows compared with risk assets.
In short, investors are clearly moving back up the risk curve.
The key takeaway? This divergence isn’t happening in isolation. Federal Reserve nominee Kevin Warsh has reiterated his confidence in Bitcoin, even referring to it as “new gold.”
With Warsh considered a potential next Fed Chair, his stance adds weight to how investors may think about long-term capital allocation.
Against this backdrop, the Bitcoin-gold uptrend may not be nearing exhaustion but instead signaling the early stages of a broader capital rotation.
If this trend continues to hold, could forecasts calling for BTC to outperform gold by as much as 42% this year be less of a bold prediction and more of an early signal of where capital is heading next?
Bitcoin’s market share expansion reinforces bullish structure
The March cycle appears to have set the stage for the divergence discussed above.
While gold has maintained long-term outperformance against Bitcoin, the ratio closed March up 17.67%, followed by another 13.03% gain in April, a combined 30.7% rally in roughly 60 days.
This marks the strongest move since the Q2 2025 cycle, when the ratio was over 22%, signaling capital rotating back into BTC.
Still, it’s worth noting that the BTC/XAU ratio finished last year down 43%, which keeps the narrative of a 40%+ Bitcoin outperformance versus gold under scrutiny.
The Bitcoin–gold ratio may have already put in a cyclical low, with price showing a clean retest of the 2017 ratio all-time high zone and the 2022 bear-market base range, levels typically associated with trend reversals.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance is already up 2.3%, reinforcing Bitcoin’s strengthening market share.
Taken together, BTC.D breaking out alongside rising investor risk appetite, combined with a Fed outlook that appears increasingly supportive of BTC, doesn’t look like a fluke.
Instead, it points toward a broader macro shift, where capital may be rotating back into Bitcoin as a leading risk asset. In this context, the BTC/XAU vertical expansion doesn’t look exhausted but more like the early stages of a bigger move unfolding.
Therefore, projections of a 42% BTC/XAU outperformance by year-end now appear more realistic.
Final Summary
- Investors are moving back into risk assets, favoring Bitcoin over gold.
- Bitcoin dominance and the BTC/Gold trend suggest Bitcoin could outperform gold this year.