XRP is trading in a quiet range between $1.38 and $1.40, but new derivatives data indicates the calm may be masking a more unstable setup beneath the surface.
A CryptoQuant analysis by Pelinay shows that XRP’s leverage structure is low and moving sideways, while its price action has been relatively higher than the leverage, and this has created a divergence that history has shown to resolve through a forceful explosive move.
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XRP Holds Strong Despite Sharp Decline In Leverage Ratio
The CryptoQuant chart shared by Pelinay focuses on Binance’s estimated leverage ratio for XRP. The most important signal that the chart is showing is not simply that leverage is low, but that XRP’s price has not collapsed alongside it.
The chart shows that leverage was much higher during previous phases, particularly around the major price expansion in late 2024 and the push to new all-time price highs in mid-2025. However, the current leverage ratio has fallen back near the lower end of its range and is moving sideways.
The leverage is now back to late 2024 numbers. Particularly, the Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance is now around 0.1. The XRP’s price, however, is still holding close to $1.4, which is well above its price levels seen before its late-2024 breakout. Back in October 2024, a leverage ratio of 0.1 corresponded with an XRP price of just $0.50.
XRP Estimated Leverage Ratio On Binance. Source: CryptoQuant
Is A Squeeze Coming For XRP?
What this means in essence is that the XRP price is no longer being pushed mainly by aggressive borrowed positioning. That can be important because it suggests that much of the excess speculation has already been flushed out.
However, this type of divergence rarely stays unresolved for long. The market usually deals with it in one of two ways. Price can fall to match the lower leverage environment, or leverage can begin rising again and feed a stronger price reaction.
The second outcome is the more bullish scenario. In that case, XRP would not need an already overheated derivatives market to begin its move. A similar move happened between late June and mid-July 2025, when the leverage ratio climbed from below 0.3 to just under 0.6 in four weeks, and over that same period XRP surged from $1.96 to $3.65.
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Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto arrived at a similar conclusion through an entirely different framework using the monthly candlestick timeframe chart. Both analyses point to the same idea: XRP may look quiet, but the structure is brewing for a violent move.
XRP Price Chart. Source: @egragcrypto
The chart shows XRP compressed between long-term rising macro lines, with the price now situated around the lower part of a wedge structure. EGRAG marked the $0.90 region as a possible trap zone, while also showing a bullish path that could send XRP back above $1.80.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView