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A fresh debate is emerging around Ripple-affiliated XRP after an analyst suggested that a rocket surge to $100, while highly ambitious, cannot be completely ruled out. In a bold assessment that has quickly caught the attention of the crypto community, the pundit placed the probability of such a move above 1%.
How Realistic Is a $100 XRP Target?
Crypto expert Patrick L. Riley has weighed in on the growing debate around XRP’s long-term price outlook, responding directly to remarks made by former Ripple CTO David Schwartz.
To give some context, Schwartz had recently dismissed the idea of XRP soaring to $10,000 within the next decade, arguing that if sophisticated investors genuinely believed in such a scenario, market behavior would likely have already driven the token to as high as $20. The ex-Ripple exec also revisited his own historical assumptions, noting that he once assigned less than a 1% likelihood to Ether (ETH) ascending to roughly $2,368—an outlook that ultimately preceded his decision to offload his ETH stash at around $1.05.
Riley, however, pushed back on this cautious framing, particularly in relation to XRP. He contended that the odds of XRP surpassing the highly-coveted $100 milestone are higher than 1%, suggesting that the market may still be underestimating the asset’s potential over the long term.
Key Reasons Behind the Bold Prediction
Riley backs his argument with a long-term technical analysis of XRP’s price structure, highlighting a chart that suggests the asset has been trading within ascending channels since 2014.
 
He notes that XRP has repeatedly established higher lows over time while slowly expanding its price range, a pattern he interprets as sustained structural growth. Additionally, he points out that the payments-focused token typically respects key diagonal trendlines, reinforcing his view that XRP’s long-term movement may be following a consistent, well-defined upward trajectory.
To further reinforce his outlook, Riley also pointed to projections from xAI’s Grok model, which estimates roughly a 20% chance that XRP could reach a whopping $100 within the next decade (potentially around 2036).
According to the AI-driven analysis, such an outcome could be buoyed by a combination of structural and macro-level factors. These include arguments previously raised by Schwartz, suggesting that higher XRP valuations could reduce transaction frictions and improve payment efficiency, as well as broader growth in the cryptocurrency sector that may lift overall market capitalization and liquidity conditions.
According to CoinGecko, XRP currently trades at $1.41, having risen by circa 0.3% on the day amid a buoyant mood in the crypto market.