TLDR:
- Strategy’s STRC ex-dividend date on the 15th triggers monthly bitcoin buying, creating a recurring mid-month price pattern.
- STRC-driven bitcoin purchases surged from 4,467 BTC in January to nearly 46,872 BTC in April, per K33 data.
- Bitcoin’s 30-day funding rate is nearing a record 74 consecutive negative days, signaling defensive market positioning.
- Strategy proposes twice-monthly STRC dividends, a move that could tighten and amplify its bitcoin accumulation cycle.
Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock, STRC, may be quietly driving a repeating bitcoin price pattern each month. Research firm K33 has flagged a consistent mid-month surge in bitcoin during both March and April.
The firm’s Head of Research, Vetle Lunde, attributes the trend to STRC’s dividend structure, which sets share ownership eligibility on the 15th of each month.
As that date approaches, investor demand for STRC rises, and Strategy channels the fresh capital directly into bitcoin.
STRC’s Dividend Cycle Creates a Predictable Bitcoin Buying Window
The mechanics behind the pattern are straightforward. Strategy issues new STRC shares through an at-the-market program whenever the stock trades at or near its $100 par value.
Those proceeds go directly toward bitcoin purchases. Lunde explained that “the instrument pays dividends on the last day of each month, while share ownership is determined by the ex-dividend date on the 15th.”
That deadline pushes investors to position early, drives STRC back toward par, and gives Strategy the capital to keep accumulating bitcoin.
K33’s data shows May is already tracking the same setup. On Monday, May 11, STRC volumes climbed to their highest level since April 15, and the stock recovered back to $100.
Lunde pointed directly to the timing, saying, “this Friday marks another STRC ex-dividend date, and on Monday, May 11, we already saw early signs of the pattern repeating.”
With the ex-dividend date approaching, the firm expects another major bitcoin purchase announcement from Strategy by next Monday.
The scale of STRC-driven acquisitions has grown sharply this year. Strategy purchased 4,467 BTC via STRC in January, then 22,131 BTC in March, and nearly 46,872 BTC in April.
The company’s total bitcoin holdings now stand at 818,869 BTC, worth approximately $65.7 billion. STRC’s annualized yield of 11.5% continues to attract steady investor interest, sustaining the cycle each month.
Strategy has also proposed moving STRC dividend payments to twice per month. The company stated the change could “lead to reduced reinvestment lag, enhanced liquidity, market efficiency, and increased price stability.”
If adopted, the adjustment could tighten and potentially amplify the mid-month bitcoin demand window that K33 is already monitoring.
Broader Bitcoin Market Stays Cautious Even as STRC Fuels Supply Absorption
Despite the structural support STRC provides, the wider bitcoin market remains defensively positioned. Both the seven-day and 30-day average funding rates for bitcoin perpetual futures are still negative. The 30-day rate is now approaching a record-long consecutive negative streak of 74 days, according to K33.
Lunde noted that a brief uptick in funding rates earlier this week lacked genuine bullish backing. “While funding rates briefly normalized higher in recent days, the move appears largely driven by low trading activity rather than renewed bullish positioning,” he wrote, adding that open interest held flat and volumes stayed subdued throughout the period.
Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq currently sits near record highs. Yet bitcoin has slightly underperformed against the latest equity rally, complicating the view that it simply behaves as a high-beta version of tech stocks.
K33 maintains that crypto fundamentals remain solid, though near-term price action continues to closely follow equities.
On the STRC front, May has moved slower than prior months. Strategy added only 1 BTC through the instrument so far, and the stock took longer to recover to par.
Lunde acknowledged the slowdown but remained measured, saying “the week is still young” and that the firm is “prepared for yet another massive BTC purchase announcement from Strategy” by next Monday.
