Over the past week, Bitcoin has traded sideways in the high $70,000 region, unable to reclaim the psychological $82,000 level that has eluded market bulls since mid-May. Notably, the $76,000 price level has now been tested three weeks in a row and held each time, emerging as a real support zone. However, an obscure on-chain metric may be flashing the clearest bottom signal in Bitcoin’s history.
Key Bearish Signal Arises From Investor Cost Basis Data
In an X post on May 22, CryptoChan shares data from an historically reliable bottom indicator built from two realized price bands: the 6m–10y Realized Price, representing the average acquisition cost of long-term holders, currently at $60,316; and the 0–10y Realized Price, a broader market average cost basis, sitting at $64,412. The ratio between these two bands indicates how stressed long-term holders are relative to the broader market. When it drops below 0.936 and then recovers back toward 1.0, it has marked the precise bottom moment in every prior Bitcoin cycle.
🚨 历史经验表明，当黑线逼近绿线，往往也正是熊市尾声与历史级大底的标志性信号
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📊【#BTC 四年周期系列更新】当前图中指标已升至 0.9362015年熊底该指标从 0.936 升到 1，花费 59天
18-19年熊底该指标从 0.936 升到 1，花费 66天… https://t.co/pOwvk1rsDu pic.twitter.com/kr6P4m7bBy— CryptoChan (@0xCryptoChan) May 22, 2026
This is because when the ratio touches 1.0, the green line (long-term holder cost) overtakes the black line (full market cost), meaning even the most conviction-driven holders are underwater. That is the moment when selling pressure is fully exhausted, and market sentiment is in extreme panic. In the 2015 bear market bottom, the ratio took 59 days to climb from 0.936 back to 1.0. In the 2018–2019 bear bottom, the recovery took 66 days. In the November 2022 FTX collapse-driven bottom, the journey took 50 days. The ratio is presently at 0.936 again. If the current reading holds and historical data repeats itself, Bitcoin’s definitive bottom window may open sometime around mid-to-late July 2026.
Bitcoin Price Overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at $75,269, following a 2.84% loss in the last week. In tandem, the asset’s performance on larger timeframes is also negative, with declines of 4.65% and 3.55% on the weekly and monthly charts, respectively.
According to data from Coincodex, the Fear & Greed Index stands at 28, indicating that fear is significantly affecting the market. Nevertheless, CoinCodex analysts are backing a short squeeze toward $83,354 over the next five days. In a month, they predict a return to $77,741. However, their three-month projection points to a $90,529 price target, suggesting a potential 16% gain over current market prices.
Featured image from Pixelz.cc, chart from Tradingview
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