XRP has spent the better part of four months carving out a trading range with a series of contested highs and lows that kept both bulls and bears engaged.
That appearance of stability is now under serious threat, as the cryptocurrency has returned to the exact support level that anchored its range lows throughout the consolidation. XRP losing this support level will determine the next significant directional move.
XRP Returns To The Same Range Low
XRP’s price action on the daily candlestick timeframe chart shows the cryptocurrency is currently locked inside a consolidation range that has been forming since February 2026. The upper boundary of the range is around $1.55, which has capped multiple rallies since February, while the lower boundary is around the $1.26 to $1.28 area.
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The analysis, which was posted on the social media platform X by crypto analyst ‘Guy on the Earth,’ was made when XRP was trading near $1.279, almost directly on that lower boundary, but the token has since moved lower to around $1.16.
That loss of support matters because the range low had been one of the cleanest technical levels on the chart. XRP previously reacted from this area during earlier pullbacks in March and April, making it a point where buyers were expected to defend the structure again.
However, now that the situation is different, a weekly close below the range would weaken that assumption and suggest that the months-long sideways movement has ended in favor of sellers.
The Downside Scenarios: From $1.10 To $0.63
Analyst Guy on the Earth, whose chart is the basis of this analysis, laid out the case that losing the current support zone puts XRP on a path to $1.10, which is just below the wick low in early February. That scenario already appears to be unfolding, as the cryptocurrency is now trading below the range floor, down by 6.1% in the past 24 hours.
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The more consequential question is how far a sustained breakdown extends from $1.10. The most probable bottom zone is between $0.75 and $0.95 if range support is lost and a deeper correction takes hold.
Analyst Crypto Patel, weighing in independently on X, pointed to the $1.10-$1.30 range as a current accumulation zone and said if that support breaks, buying anywhere between $0.65 to $0.85 could become a generational entry.
That range would be painful for holders, but it would still fit within a larger bullish-market pullback if XRP eventually stabilizes and resumes higher. The worst-case bullish scenario in the analysis is around $0.63, which would mean XRP gives back nearly all of its bull-market gains since late 2023 before finding a durable support.
Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com