Bitcoin news today: price crashed to $58,100 on Thursday, its lowest level since September 2024, after a hotter-than-expected inflation reading effectively buried near-term Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations and triggered more than $1.26Bn in crypto liquidations across 209,000 traders.
The selloff was sharp enough to reprice prediction markets overnight: on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform where traders stake real money on outcome probabilities, the odds of Bitcoin hitting $50,000 before year-end jumped to 65%.
The central tension the data now forces: is this a high-velocity flush that sets up a recovery, or the opening chapter of a BTC bear market that sends price into the low $40,000s? The answer likely hinges on one building in Washington, D.C., and whether the Fed’s July meeting delivers any relief.
Bitcoin News Today: A Hot PCE Print Caused Over $1Bn in Liquidations
The catalyst for recent market movements was Thursday’s PCE inflation report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of consumer inflation. In May 2026, the PCE price index rose to 4.1% year-over-year, exceeding expectations, while core PCE was 3.4%.
These figures significantly reduced rate-cut probabilities, as accelerating inflation weakens the case for lowering interest rates, leading risk assets like Bitcoin to adjust quickly.
As a result, a BTC flash crash occurred, liquidating over $1.26Bn in crypto positions across major exchanges, impacting 209,000 traders. This forced deleveraging, rather than organic selling, drove much of the volatility and is crucial for understanding the recovery path.
BREAKING 🚨
US PCE inflation just came in at 4.1%, exactly in line with expectations and the hottest reading since April 2023.
This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and at 4.1% it is now running at more than double the Fed’s 2% target.
That is the number that quietly… pic.twitter.com/t0Pkaxqeid
— Crypto Jargon (@Crypto_Jargon) June 25, 2026
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What Polymarket’s Numbers Actually Say About Bitcoin
Polymarket is a prediction market in which real money reflects probability estimates, making its odds more reliable than those from Twitter polls. As of Friday, Bitcoin price contracts showed a significant downside skew.
(Source – Polymarket)
The probability of BTC falling to $55,000 this year was 77%, while the likelihood of it hitting $50,000 sat at 65%. The 12-percentage-point gap between these figures indicates that traders view the $55,000 breach as the base case, with $50,000 as a more likely extension.
Notably, the $55,000 contract recently surged by about 20 percentage points, suggesting a shift in traders’ sentiment towards a deeper decline.
However, there is also a 60% chance priced in that Bitcoin could reclaim $70,000 by year-end. This reflects a belief in a significant downturn followed by a recovery, allowing for the possibility of hitting both $50,000 and then exceeding $70,000 within the year.
DISCOVER: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will BTC Hold $60K or Fall to $50K?
The BTC Support Levels That Now Define the Trade
$BTC hit a new low yesterday.
And is now back above $60,000.
The majority of this small move in Bitcoin is due to short positions being closed, which is exactly what we saw tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/luCidfbuCp
— Ted (@TedPillows) June 26, 2026
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $59,900, recovering from a dip to $58,100. Analysts from CryptoQuant and Standard Chartered have pinpointed a critical support zone between $55,000 and $50,000.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju sees $55,000 as a potential cycle floor due to tightening stablecoin liquidity, with USDT inflows decreasing significantly from a high of $616M in November 2022 to just $27M now. This trend suggests reduced buying power on exchanges, increasing downside volatility.
Standard Chartered suggests Bitcoin may drop to about $50,000 before attempting to rise towards $100,000, viewing the current market downturn as a mid-cycle correction.
Polymarket predicts a 65% chance of hitting $50,000 and a 60% chance of recovering to $70,000. Key support levels for Bitcoin include $58,100, $55,000, $50,000, $42,000–$44,000, and $40,000.
Expert Bearish Targets: How Low Is Low?
In other Bitcoin news today, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has set a Bitcoin bottom target of $40,000 within the next six months, citing tightening dollar liquidity and persistent inflation as factors compressing the values of speculative assets.
Jiang Zhuoer, a prominent Bitcoin miner and founder of BTC.TOP estimates a higher floor of $42,000 to $44,000, targeting late 2026. Miners’ cost of production provides a fundamental anchor for these estimates, as prices below certain levels lead to shutdowns and reduced sales pressure.
Both targets suggest a continuation of the bear market, with a potential drop from $60,000 representing a -33% decline, though still above the 2022 cycle low of around $15,500.
Bitcoin News Today: The Fed’s July Meeting Is the Next Binary
🐋 WHALE WATCH: 65.8%. That the probability the Fed sits on their hands in July.
The rate hike engine is officially stalling. Markets are pricing in the pause and the narrative is shifting fast. Risk on assets are paying attention pic.twitter.com/VwJKLUZfeX
— Whale Factor (@WhaleFactor) June 25, 2026
The Federal Reserve’s July meeting is a key event for markets, especially with PCE at 4.1%, making a rate cut unlikely. The focus is on whether the Fed will soften its guidance, which could restart risk appetite.
Rate cuts are significant for Bitcoin, as they lower the opportunity cost of holding BTC relative to yield-bearing assets and signal a shift toward more accommodative policy, encouraging speculative activity.
Large options expiries around the $55,000 and $50,000 strike levels could increase volatility as market makers hedge their positions, potentially creating a “self-fulfilling liquidity magnet.”
Additionally, the regulatory environment, particularly regarding preemption and CFTC oversight of platforms like Polymarket, adds complexity to prediction markets, although the platform continues to operate and is increasingly referenced by analysts.
EXPLORE: Best Crypto Presales With Asymmetric Upside in the Current Market
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