Crypto analyst Rekt Capital says Bitcoin (BTC) may not have reached its bear market bottom, arguing that historical market cycles suggest there could still be additional downside ahead.
In a new YouTube video, the analyst says the current market shares similarities with Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market while also exhibiting characteristics seen during previous cycles.
According to Rekt Capital, macro downtrends that follow breakdowns from descending triangle patterns have historically led to extended periods of downside.
While the recent decline has been steep, the analyst says a short-term relief rally is possible before another period of consolidation.
“This is probably going to be yet another redistribution range like what we saw back here… in the search for a new bear market bottom.”
Rekt also compares the current cycle with prior bear markets using the number of days elapsed since the market peak.
He notes that Bitcoin is approaching roughly 270 days since its 2025 peak, while previous cycles typically took around 365 days to reach a bear market bottom.
“By standards of 2022… we’re not quite near the bottom… there’s still time and there’s still magnitude for downside.”
He adds that, at a similar point in the 2018 and 2014 cycles, Bitcoin had not yet broken down from comparable macro chart patterns.
Based on those historical comparisons, Rekt Capital says it is “a little bit premature” to conclude that Bitcoin is close to bottoming, adding that “” if the current cycle continues to follow historical trends.
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