Don’t Obsess Over Bitcoin’s Bottom as $38K Low Comes Into Focus: Analyst

Bitcoin may have rallied from recent lows, but experts believe historical patterns still leave room for another leg lower toward $38K.

Bitcoin’s price action so far this year has put the four-year cycle narrative back in focus as its timing and overall structure increasingly resemble the major reset years of 2014, 2018, and 2022, even though the current market has not followed those cycles exactly.

BTC has fallen almost 50% from its all-time high of $126,000 established on October 6, 2025, with the cryptocurrency hitting a new cycle low of $57,700 on July 1 during the quarter-end period. The drawdown lasted more than 268 days before BTC staged a mild recovery this week.

$38K in Play

Looking at previous cycles, the last two major drawdowns extended for 363 and 376 days before bottoming, with peak-to-trough declines of 84.3% and 77.6%, respectively.

Based on that historical framework, NYDIG said a repeat of the duration seen in those cycles, combined with a shallower 70% decline in line with the trend of progressively less severe cycle bottoms, would point to a potential low in the $38,000-$39,000 range around early October.

The firm also added that this is a scenario and not a base-case forecast, but said the comparison highlights why the four-year cycle framework is becoming increasingly relevant as Bitcoin’s current drawdown continues to deepen and lengthen.

Analyst Doctor Profit previously predicted that Bitcoin would likely find its final low between $40,000 and $48,000 around September or October 2026.

Even as analysts continue debating where that bottom will ultimately form, the world’s largest crypto asset gained around 3% this week. It is currently trading a little below the $65,000 mark. The rebound, however, has done little to change some analysts’ broader outlook. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson said the surge in optimism across social media following Bitcoin’s recovery indicates the market has yet to reach its ultimate bottom.

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Attractive Buy Zone

Not everyone believes investors should focus on finding the exact bottom, though. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez urged investors not to “obsess” over the exact timing. Looking at BTC’s performance over the past decade, the analyst noted that periods when the asset traded near its 200-week moving average have consistently turned into strong long-term buying opportunities, even though very few investors managed to buy at the absolute low.

He added that as Bitcoin matures and its returns gradually diminish, investors now need more capital to achieve the same gains from simply holding the asset. Despite this, Martinez said he believes the current price remains an attractive area for long-term accumulation.