Signal of the week: Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with gold has reached a 20-month high. Historically, periods of strong BTC-gold correlation have often coincided with lower volatility and range-bound price action before making a larger directional move.
Bitcoin continued its gradual recovery amid reports of a potential 10-day Middle East ceasefire and reestablished spot ETF inflows. The move was also supported by on-chain indicators, with long-term holders showing increased accumulation. At the same time, realized losses picked up again, showing that not every investor is convinced the recovery is here to stay.
About the Bitcoin Impact Index
The Bitcoin Impact Index measures which groups of Bitcoin holders are under financial stress, how severe that stress is, and whether it’s severe enough to shake confidence in the market’s direction. It combines on-chain holder behaviour, ETF and derivatives activity, and exchange-level liquidity flows into a single weekly score between 0 and 100. Unlike sentiment indicators, it deliberately excludes social media and volume data to focus on what participants are doing rather than what they are saying.
Score bands:
- Normal Rotation (0–24) — routine profit-taking, no structural shift
- Elevated Repositioning (25–49) — specific groups shifting positions, pressure uneven across the market
- High Impact (50–74) — broad stress across multiple holder groups and institutional flows simultaneously
- Critical Impact (75–100) — full capitulation: LTH losses, large ETF outflows, major liquidations, and heavy exchange inflows at once
Week 29: BII 42.1 — Elevated Repositioning
Mixed signals: long-term holders’ supply reached a new all-time high
Long-term holders now control more than 84% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, setting a new all-time high. Their holdings increased by roughly 33,000 BTC over the past week. The increase is primarily driven by coins aging rather than aggressive new accumulation, which decreases immediate buying pressure and suggests a market transition to a “wait and see” mode.
Bitcoin’s relationship with gold also points to a market waiting for a catalyst. The BTC-gold 30-day correlation has reached its highest level since November 2024. Historically, elevated correlation periods above 0.6 have often been followed by strong directional moves after a period of consolidation.
For now, the signal suggests that Bitcoin may remain range-bound while investors wait for clearer macro drivers, including the Fed decision and regulatory developments.
Positive signals: selling pressure continues to fade as ETFs return to inflows
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $75.7 million in net inflows last week, extending the recovery after several weeks of significant outflows. This supports the Bitcoin price recovery, but the scale remains relatively too modest to fuel the recovery on its own.
Liquidation activity also continued to decline. Average long liquidations dropped to around $57 million per day, compared with $151 million two weeks earlier. This suggests that excessive leverage has been reduced and the market is less vulnerable to another wave of forced selling.
Exchange activity remained relatively calm as well. Average exchange inflows stayed around 20,000 BTC, with no major increase despite Bitcoin’s recovery, suggesting that investors are not aggressively selling into strength.
Negative signals: realized losses rise as older coins become more active
Despite improving market conditions, some signs of stress remain. Realized losses increased again this week, reaching around $707 million on a 7-day average basis. Realized loss per unit of liquidity also climbed to 54.5%, showing that some investors continue realizing losses despite the recent rebound.
Bitcoin’s Binary Coin Days Destroyed (BTCC) also reached its highest level of 2026, indicating increased movement among older coins. While this does not necessarily mean selling, higher activity from older holders could act as preparation for a potential distribution.
What could happen next?
Currently, Bitcoin continues its gradual recovery, supported by bullish divergences in MACD, RSI, and OBV highlighted earlier. The daily MACD is also approaching a potential bullish crossover above the zero line, which could support further upside momentum.
The key level to watch remains $68,000, where the current short-term holder cost basis is located. While Bitcoin remains below this level, recent buyers are still holding unrealized losses, creating additional pressure on the market.
However, reclaiming $68,000 could create a new challenge. Some short-term holders may use a return to profitability as an opportunity to exit their positions, potentially creating additional selling pressure around this level. The strength of this reaction will determine the next phase.
If Bitcoin breaks above $68,000 and selling remains limited, it would suggest that short-term holder supply is being absorbed and could support a broader recovery. However, if profit-taking becomes strong enough to turn $68,000 into resistance, Bitcoin may remain range-bound, with $64,000 and $61,500 continuing to act as key support levels.
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