Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to flip $80,000 into support in recent days, but bulls’ real challenge is still to come, new research says.
Key points:
- Bitcoin long-term holders add to BTC price resistance below $86,000, Glassnode reveals.
- Buyer demand must overcome this area as Bitcoin struggles to advance beyond $80,000.
- Multiple key trend lines sit around spot price, increasing the implications of an eventual loss or reclaim.
Glassnode: Key overhead liquidity structures sit between $81,000 and $86,000
In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain, crypto analytics platform Glassnode flagged multiple pools of coins that could be released into the market below $86,000.
Of particular interest are long-term holders (LTHs) — wallets holding BTC without selling for at least six months.
“Above, the first heavy structure is $83K-86K, and effectively all of it is long-term holder supply that has sat through the entire drawdown,” it wrote, predicting that reaching $83,000 would test the resolve of the LTH cohort not to sell at breakeven.
BTC supply distribution by wallet cohort. Source: Glassnode
In the same zone, new ask liquidity has appeared on exchange order books. Its owners, Glassnode notes, may not intend for their orders to be filled, instead aiming to stay above spot price should it rise further.
“The re-laddered asks join a stack of independent structure pointing at one zone. The first self-custody cost-basis shelf begins at $80.8K, dealer gamma flips negative at $82.3K, the surviving liquidation shelf runs to $86K, and the patient-supply wall fills $83K-86K,” it continued.
“Every overhead structure we track now sits between $81K and $86K; that band is where the recovery’s demand meets its test.”
BTC spot order-book heatmap. Source: Glassnode
Trend lines converge on a narrow BTC price corridor
The area around $80,000 has also seen multiple price trend lines converge, strengthening its status as a resistance hurdle.
Related: BTC RSI bullish divergence draws 2022 comparisons as analysis weighs new price trend
Bitcoin’s 50-week and 100-week exponential moving averages (EMAs) currently sit at $77,353 and $78,485, respectively, per data from TradingView. Additionally, Bitcoin’s 365-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP), a moving average that factors in volume, sits around $82,600.
BTC/USD one-day chart with 50-week, 100-week EMA; 365-day rolling VWAP. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Previously, Cointelegraph reported on the skepticism of market participants over whether Bitcoin’s rapid rebound would endure. With regular bear market timing due to continue until the end of 2026, trader and analyst Rekt Capital stressed that price needs to hold the 50-week EMA for longer before a meaningful trend change can be considered.