Balanced Price has historically identified deep-cycle bottoms, yet Bitcoin’s changing relationship with the metric raises a fundamental possibility.
Bitcoin staged a strong rally in August, surging by almost 30%. While some believe that the bear market is over, others argue that the risk of a devastating plunge still lurks over the world’s largest crypto asset.
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson said that BTC’s Balanced Price currently stands near $38,400, but historical evolution does not necessarily mean prices must return to that level.
Deep Bottom Pattern
The Balanced Price metric has historically been effective at identifying deep cycle bottoms of the crypto asset, but the cumulative time between its main interactions with the zone has continued to increase, moving from 732 days to 1,120, then 1,200, and 1,420 days.
In the current cycle, Bitcoin has already spent approximately 1,400 days since its last interaction with the Balanced Price. At the same time, the amount of time BTC spends below the metric has steadily declined. Earlier cycles saw prices stay below it for several weeks, later for around 20 days, and in 2022, the asset remained below the zone for practically just one day.
The Balanced Price is currently near $38,400. It adjusts Bitcoin’s aggregate market cost basis using the long-term spending footprint of older coins and creates a valuation zone that has historically appeared during periods of extreme capitulation. While this does not mean it must return to $38,000, Wedson’s observation raises the possibility that BTC could eventually break from its historical pattern and never revisit the zone. If the pattern does repeat, however, the $40,000 region may still have an on-chain basis as a possible capitulation target.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin investors are becoming increasingly confident that the market bottom is already behind them. Wedson found that “Very Bullish” sentiment is now dominating social media. This conviction is far stronger than the uncertainty seen after the late-2022 and early-2023 bottom. However, such widespread optimism could become a risk of its own, particularly if bullish traders are caught off guard by another sharp decline.
In that scenario, forced liquidations among bulls may trigger another wave of selling.
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Faster Path to a New ATH
One trader expects the crypto asset to set a new all-time high in Q4 next year and believes that it could be trading above $126,000 by November 2027. Killa said that Bitcoin’s market cycles are continuing to shorten, which has helped it to reach new all-time highs faster with each cycle. Based on the 2022 cycle alone, he estimates that BTC should establish a new ATH no later than February 2028.
However, the trader claimed that the current cycle is moving faster, after having bottomed roughly three to four months earlier, which could bring the timeline forward.