TLDR:
- Bitcoin price faces a dense $77,100 to $80,200 supply area after long-term holders released up to 539,000 BTC during a 30-day period.
- A close above the 365-day moving average at $81,700 would test the $83,600 Metcalfe band before the $88,700 trader band becomes relevant.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a fourth straight daily outflow, losing $13.29 million Friday and $462.73 million for the week despite $2.60 billion in trading.
- Ether ETFs collected $216.41 million Friday, but the differing flows do not prove money moved directly out of Bitcoin products.
Bitcoin price stalled after a rapid advance from beneath $65,000 in mid-August to above $82,000 within several weeks. BTC traded near $77,100 on Friday, beneath a dense collection of technical and on-chain barriers. CryptoQuant’s assessment says the trend looks constructive, yet it identifies several levels buyers must clear.
Bitcoin price needs a close above the 365-day moving average at $81,700. That threshold rejected the early-September advance and has historical weight in CryptoQuant’s framework. The firm views a close above it as bull-phase confirmation, not a brief resistance breach.
Bitcoin Price Faces a Dense $77,100 to $81,700 Barrier
Long-term holders form the nearest obstacle. CryptoQuant estimates that this cohort sold as many as 539,000 BTC during one 30-day window in 2026. The sales occurred between $77,100 and $80,200, creating an area where former holders may sell into rebounds. Bitcoin price trades at the lower end, so demand must absorb supply before higher resistance matters.
That supply zone sits below the 365-day average, turning the route higher into a sequence rather than one breakout. Bitcoin price has already failed there once, after the move above $82,000 lost traction. CryptoQuant also tracks a 200-day moving average near $70,000. It identifies that area as the first technical support if selling pressure increases.
The $77,100 to $80,200 band represents more than a chart line. It groups coins released by investors who held them through earlier market phases. Repeated tests can clear such supply if buyers take the offered coins. Failed rebounds leave the same holders with another opportunity to reduce exposure.
Buyers still face two further levels if the $81,700 average gives way. The three-times Metcalfe valuation band stands at $83,600. It derives network-value estimates from active addresses. CryptoQuant calls it a valuation ceiling buyers must clear near the present range. The trader realized price upper band, at $88,700, forms another resistance point.
That final band tracks the cost basis of active traders. Profit margins usually widen as spot prices approach it. CryptoQuant says earlier approaches have coincided with increased selling pressure. Therefore, a move through $81,700 would not settle the Bitcoin price breakout question by itself.
Bitcoin ETF Flows Turn Focus Toward $83,600 Ceiling
ETF flows add a separate near-term signal. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs posted $13.29 million in net withdrawals on Friday, extending a four-session outflow streak. The group lost $462.73 million during the week, with $2.60 billion traded. Its net assets closed at $97.58 billion.
The Bitcoin price stayed near $77,000 during the withdrawal run. That information does not prove that fund redemptions caused the price retreat. It does show that recent institutional transactions did not provide consistent demand during the test of overhead supply. The contrast with ether funds stood out.
Ether ETFs took in $216.41 million on Friday and finished a fourth consecutive week of net inflows. The split does not prove a direct rotation into ether products. Still, the different flows show that ETF demand has become selective. It coincides with overhead supply and the failed $81,700 test.
The moving average offers a clear reference point for the next move. A strong close above $81,700 would put $83,600 firmly in focus. A rejection keeps the $77,100 to $80,200 supply zone active. Bitcoin’s price would then face the same seller concentration that capped its latest rally.
Downside levels also carry weight. CryptoQuant places the next visible support at the 200-day moving average near $70,000. A second on-chain accumulation cluster lies between $62,000 and $65,000, where roughly 476,000 BTC accumulated this year. The $77,100 to $80,200 area, $81,700, and $83,600 now map the levels buyers need to reclaim before $88,700 enters focus.
