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The market moved the odds of a Fed rate hike from roughly 1 in 3 to nearly 9 in 10 in the space of a month, and six of the last seven FOMC decisions triggered a bearish reaction in Bitcoin regardless of whether they cut, held, or hinted.
The one exception was the most recent meeting, which was basically neutral, which is why this one is being called the biggest test of that pattern in months.
The overlooked scenario is the 13 to 15 percent probability that they hold and immediately signal this is not the start of a new hiking cycle, which is the outcome almost nobody is positioned for.
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0:00 The Contrarian Bet Nobody Is Making
0:08 1 In 3 To 9 In 10
1:01 Six Of The Last Seven
1:34 What Trump Wants
2:18 Once They Walk Back Easing
3:10 The Kalshi Card
4:00 The Overlooked 13 Percent
5:32 The Levels That Matter
6:04 The Meeting That Breaks The Pattern
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