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The China crypto supercycle rumor is spreading fast, but the stories online and what Beijing is actually doing are two very different things.
Hong Kong is a real catalyst, yet capital controls, a mainland ban that keeps getting reaffirmed and a government that likes blockchain but not Bitcoin all stand in the way of a sudden flood of Chinese money.
Here is how to separate the signal from the noise, what an official reopening would really look like and the signs worth watching.
0:00 China Is About To Flip The Switch
0:13 The China Supercycle Rumor
1:18 Where The Theory Started
1:47 How Ifs Become A Done Deal
2:07 The Kalshi Card
3:02 What A Super Cycle Actually Is
3:55 The Four Year Cycle Is Broken
4:11 China Is Watching Crypto
4:33 Hong Kong Is The Sandbox
4:51 The Mainland Ban Keeps Coming Back
5:25 The Part The Bulls Skip
6:25 China Likes The Tech, Not The Crypto
7:13 A Slow Phased Opening
7:46 Crypto Never Really Left China
8:17 What An Official Reopening Looks Like
8:44 I’ve Seen This Movie Before
9:24 Priced In And Priced Out
10:01 What To Watch
10:41 The Lark Davis Newsletter
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