The market’s position is getting worse as arch-like patterns appear across the board. Usually it means that the rally is fading and bears are going to take control as the new trading week starts. Unfortunately, at the current rate, a swift and explosive recovery is nearly impossible.
Shiba Inu’s recovery ends
The current chart completely destroys any hope that Shiba Inu could salvage a significant recovery phase. The alleged uptrend that briefly surfaced earlier this month was actually a dead-cat bounce inside a clearly defined, protracted downtrend. And now it has run directly into the same wall, the cluster of declining moving averages that has rejected SHIB for nearly a full year.
There is no space for interpretation in the technicals. The 50-day, 100-day and 200-day major moving averages are all pointing downward, and SHIB is trading beneath them. This alignment is a fully confirmed, bearish stack, not neutral. Any asset that falls between those three curves is using no leverage to fight gravity.
Like every other failed bounce since June, SHIB has now tapped the underside of the 50-day EMA and failed. That is the point at which feeble relief efforts fail.
The same story is confirmed by volume. There is no buy-side activity despite a slight price increase from the November lows. There isn’t any momentum, breakout volume or accumulation at all. Volume increases when a market tries to turn around, but SHIB’s has had the opposite effect.
Indeed, since the uptrend never began, it ends here. With lower highs and lower lows dominating every time frame, SHIB is still stuck in a more general, structural decline. This asset has no technical foundation for a bullish narrative until the price breaks above $0.0000099 and then the 200-day MA around $0.00001186.
Bitcoin is back in danger
Bitcoin has risen back into the danger zone, directly confronting the resistance level of $90,954, which has frequently served as a significant turning point for the asset. This is the point on the chart where sentiment breaks down, liquidity tightens and the market begins acting irrationally. It is not just another arbitrary line. This is where Bitcoin will either soar higher or crash back into the mid-$80,000s.
The structure of the daily chart is simple: Bitcoin is rebounding from a severe sell-off in November, but it is currently running into layered resistance from the 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA and a structural ceiling that was established in the early phases of the prior decline. BTC is attacking these bearishly stacked moving averages from below, which is the least favorable position for a breakout attempt.
Moreover, volume is not helping. There is buying pressure, but it is not motivated by conviction. This kind of expansion is not typical of a clean breakout. This type of cautious action frequently comes before volatility spikes and fakeouts.
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The RSI is in the neutral-to-slightly-bullish range, indicating recovery momentum but insufficient strength to overwhelm a significant resistance cluster by itself. And that is where things get weird. The market frequently exhibits unpredictable behavior, including stop-hunts, liquidation cascades, false breakouts and sharp intraday swings of 2-5% when Bitcoin gets close to a level that both bulls and bears are fixated on.
The setup is ready for chaotic price action because traders are still trying to buy the dip or short the bounce with inflated open interest. BTC can move toward $94,400 and possibly $102,000 if it breaks above $90,954 cleanly and maintains a daily close. However, the price could swiftly return to the $87,000-$88,000 range if it is rejected, which is totally possible given the current technicals.
XRP takes a hit
With the 50-day EMA falling below the 100-day EMA, XRP has just locked in a mini-death cross, and the timing could not be worse for bulls. Although this crossover lacks the catastrophic weight of a 50/200 EMA death cross, it nevertheless indicates a structural decline in medium-term momentum and, historically, frequently signals the start of unsuccessful recovery attempts.
That dynamic is exactly what the chart illustrates. Although XRP has been steadily rising from its recent lows, the bounce is feeble, shallow, and has already stalled just below the declining 50/100/200 EMA cluster. The price has been unable to break the ceiling formed by these moving averages, which are stacked in an aggressively bearish manner for weeks. Every time XRP rises, sellers intervene right away; this is typical behavior during a downtrend when bulls lack sufficient strength.
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Volume attests to the weakness. There is no growth, no influx of new purchasers and no indication of accumulation. The RSI is neither oversold nor exhibiting any breakout momentum as it drifts sideways around the mid-40s. Bearish crossovers have teeth in this type of environment because there is nothing to offset them.
Instead of a breakout, the mini-death cross indicates that the market is getting ready for another leg down. The recovery attempt fails if XRP is unable to recover $2.33 (the 50 EMA zone), leaving the asset susceptible to a decline back toward $2.10-$2.00, with even lower levels possible if sentiment deteriorates.
Although a clean daily close above the 100 EMA would neutralize the signal, bulls still have a limited escape route, but nothing in the current price behavior points to that happening anytime soon.