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Falling Bitcoin Dominance to Trigger Major Altseason?
Merlijn the Trader, a popular crypto analyst on X (formerly Twitter), argues for a major altcoin boom following a Bitcoin dominance peak during this cycle. He tweeted:
“BITCOIN DOMINANCE: THE CRASH SIGNAL IS BACK.
2017: Dominance topped. Altseason. Rugpull
2021: Same setup. Same result
 
2025: History repeats?
This signal has never missed.
BTC.D peaks. Alts explode. Then the floor disappears.
The clock is ticking.
Don’t get trapped”
According to this analyst, Bitcoin dominance peaked above 65% earlier this year and has been sliding ever since. It is trading just south of the 60% share at press time. According to the analyst, the only outcome of this major development is a full-blown altseason, followed by a major rug pull that will bring altcoins crashing down.
Historical confirms this developing pattern: BTC.D fell from 65% to 35% in early 2018 after the 2017 peak, and from 70% to 40% in mid-2021, enabling altseason gains of 10x+ before 80%+ drawdowns in alt markets. The 80%+ loss doesn’t scare altcoin investors because they have been down this road before and are prepared to deal with it.
Traders Keep Their Fingers Crossed
Altcoin holders are optimistic about a possible altseason because it will open up the market considerably and pour a lot of capital into the system. Currently, the larger crypto market, especially the altcoin scene, is quite dead and trending largely downward. There are growing fears that we won’t see a major altcoin boom this time around, which could end the 4-year crypto cycle as we know it.
The fears are well-placed because this is the first time since 2017 that Bitcoin’s new ATHs have failed to trigger an altseason in the year following a halving. Virtually all of the top altcoins are yet to record a new ATH (apart from ETH and BNB), let alone go on a bullish frenzy.
Further complications have arisen from the manner in which BTC’s dominance has declined so far. Previously, altcoins boosted their share by rallying hard against the premier digital currency, especially the top lot like ETH, XRP, and DOGE. This year, they have been reduced to playing catch-up with BTC and haven’t given a single indication that they aim to follow suit with an altseason. So, the doubts are very much around as well, and the incoming few months are expected to be crucial in determining the future of altseasons and their place in the crypto market, which has been taken for granted.