Jamie Coutts highlights capitulation volume and a hammer candle on MSTR, hinting at a potential trend reversal.
Shares of Strategy (MSTR), the enterprise software firm turned Bitcoin (BTC) holding company, have flashed one of its most active technical setups in months this week, according to market analyst Jamie Coutts, who today highlighted a cluster of signals forming near the $195 zone.
He said the pattern may reflect a turning point for the company as Bitcoin steadies after weeks of volatility. The potential move matters because Strategy has once again become a bellwether for market sentiment, with major institutions now treating the firm’s position as a guide for BTC’s next direction.
Technical Signals Form Around a Key Support Zone
Coutts noted on X that Strategy printed “capitulation-style” volume alongside a hammer candle, a combination often spotted near the end of heavy selling. He also pointed to overlapping indicators, including DeMark levels, shifting momentum, and a cluster of price thresholds all meeting around $195.
Above that area, he observed a thin volume band stretching toward roughly $285, leaving the door open for a sharp climb if buyers return.
“Even the MSTR/BTC ratio is starting to show fatigue after a long stretch of underperformance,” wrote the analyst.
That view dovetailed with JPMorgan’s latest analysis, where it said short-term Bitcoin direction may depend on whether Strategy can keep its enterprise-value-to-Bitcoin ratio above 1.
With the ratio sitting near 1.13 and backed by a $1.44 billion cash reserve, the bank’s analysts argued that the BTC treasury company has enough flexibility to hold its line even if markets remain shaky. JPMorgan added that if Strategy stays in the MSCI index after a review on January 15, Bitcoin could rebound, projecting a mid-term fair value near $170,000.
A Company at the Center of Crypto Market Cycles
Strategy’s growing importance comes at a time when its approach is evolving. As reported previously, the company has slowed its Bitcoin purchases dramatically, from a peak of 134,000 BTC per month in 2024 to just 9,100 BTC in November 2025.
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The same report confirmed that the firm may sell Bitcoin or derivatives as part of its broader risk plan, a notable shift from its long-standing “buy every dip” posture.
Still, other analysts believe the market has overly punished MSTR stock. In a December 1 report, CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán noted the stock is trading in a “rare historical undervaluation zone.”
He calculated that the value implied by Strategy’s holdings of roughly 650,000 BTC, acquired at an average cost of about $74,400, exceeds the company’s current market capitalization by approximately 78%. The stock, currently trading around $186, remains far below its 52-week high of $457.
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