Key Notes
- Hayes attributes Bitcoin’s 2025 underperformance to tighter dollar liquidity.
- BTC is trading near $96,200 after breaking above the $94,200 resistance level.
- Open interest has fallen over 31% from its 2025 peak to around $10 billion.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes claimed that Bitcoin’s weak performance in 2025 was a direct result of tightening dollar liquidity.
Notably, Bitcoin
BTC
$96 756
24h volatility:
1.8%
Market cap:
$1.93 T
Vol. 24h:
$67.26 B
fell 14.4% last year as liquidity declined. Gold soared 44.4% in the same period. US tech stocks also outperformed, supported by state-backed capital flows rather than free-market demand.
In a recent blog post, Hayes explained that Bitcoin only responds to one variable i.e., the rate of fiat debasement. Generally, when liquidity contracts, BTC sees downside and when liquidity expands, the prices go higher.
Hayes expects dollar liquidity to expand sharply in 2026, driven by clearer policies. He cites balance sheet expansion at the Federal Reserve, easing mortgage conditions, and increased bank lending toward government-backed strategic sectors.
BitMEX co-founder predicts that the US will continue its large-scale military production, which requires credit creation through the banking system. Such credit expansion directly affects broader liquidity conditions and boosts scarce assets like Bitcoin.
Consistent monetary expansion is required for Bitcoin to trade near or above $100,000. Hayes believes that could happen in 2026, resulting in new highs for the largest cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin Price Structure and Holder Behavior
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $96,200, up by around 11.5% in the past month. The price has recently broken above the $94,200 resistance zone and pushed to $97,600 earlier on Jan. 15.
On-chain data by CryptoQuant suggests that the Value Days Destroyed indicator sits near 0.53 in early 2026, a historically low level.
Bitcoin Value Days Destroyed | Source: CryptoQuant
This indicates that mostly younger coins are being moved, while long-term holders remain inactive. Such behavior suggests strong confidence among smart investors.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin derivatives markets have undergone a notable deleveraging phase. The open interest has declined more than 31% from its October 2025 peak of over $15 billion to around $10 billion, according to CryptoQuant.
This follows a speculative year, during which Binance futures volumes alone exceeded $25 trillion.
Bitcoin Deleveraging on Binance | Source: CryptoQuant
Historically, such reductions in leverage have helped reset market conditions along with major bottoms. Many analysts predict BTC to reach $150,000 in the first quarter of 2026.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
A crypto journalist with over 5 years of experience in the industry, Parth has worked with major media outlets in the crypto and finance world, gathering experience and expertise in the space after surviving bear and bull markets over the years. Parth is also an author of 4 self-published books.