Key Takeaways
- Arthur Hayes predicts most layer 1 blockchain tokens will fail except for Ethereum and Solana.
- He believes initial price surges in new layer 1 projects rarely translate to long-term success.
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Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, said he expects most layer 1 blockchain coins outside Ethereum and Solana to fail, including Monad, a recently launched layer 1 backed by Coinbase Ventures.
“I think pretty much every other L1 besides Ethereum or Solana is a zero,” said Hayes, speaking in an interview with Altcoin Daily. “And they’re not going to do very well.”
Hayes predicts Monad’s MON will crash 99% as its valuation is inflated relative to fundamentals, making a deep drawdown likely.
“I think it’s going to be another bear chain. It’s going to go down 99% because it’s another high FDV, low-flow piece, VC L1,” he added.
MON is trading at approximately $0.037, up 45% from its ICO price of $0.0254, CoinGecko data shows. The coin has achieved a market capitalization of around $398 million.
According to Hayes, new L1 projects typically experience an initial price surge, driven by investors hoping to replicate early Ethereum gains.
“Every coin gets their first pump. And people want to believe in the new L1 because everybody wants to invest in the new Ethereum, like they would have in 2014 when everyone missed it, me included,” Hayes noted, adding that initial hype doesn’t translate to long-term viability, however.
When asked which protocols would make up his “magnificent five” in crypto, Hayes pointed to Ethereum, Solana, Bitcoin, Zcash, and Ethena.
According to data tracked by Lookonchain, Hayes accumulated 873,671 ENA this week after selling over $5 million ENA two weeks earlier. He also added ZEC amid the recent price rally.
Ethereum stays top choice for institutions, Solana looks for next boost
On Ethereum, Hayes said he believes Ethereum has become the choice for institutional adoption of web3. He argued that large banks and organizations have realized private blockchains don’t offer real utility, and that public chains are essential for security and meaningful usage.
According to Hayes, Ethereum will serve as the backbone for TradFi activity, with L2 solutions such as Arbitrum and Optimism helping to address privacy and scalability needs. He expects Ethereum’s ecosystem to drive the next phase of adoption and price growth.
Regarding Solana, Hayes noted its strong performance and status as the second-largest public L1, largely because of its previous rally to meme coin activity. However, he said that meme-driven growth has slowed and Solana now needs a new catalyst to sustain momentum.
“Meme coins have sort of died in terms of activity relative to what it was in sort of like 2023 and 2024. Solana needs a new trick.” Hayes said. “I don’t know what that new trick is. But again, it’s the number two largest L1. I think they’ll find something.”
“Will it be enough to power price performance greater than Ethereum? I don’t think so,” he added.