Bitcoin’s bear flag has been fully validated after the price lost channel support and then wicked up to $65,622 on Monday, confirming that level as resistance. Aaron walks through the bear flag mechanics step by step, explains why log scale matters for consistency, and shows how the flagpole measurement points to a target below $47,000. He also covers the artificial support framework that correctly called the moves from $80,600 down to $74,500, then $60,000, and why the next real target sits at $49,000.
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Aaron also breaks down two macro charts that every crypto trader needs to watch right now. Combined stablecoin dominance is sitting at 12% and pressing against the 12.5% level. A weekly close above that threshold would put the 13.3% accumulation zone target directly in range, and this chart has accurately flagged every major flush in this cycle. Then there is USD/JPY, which has just hit 161.926, a mere 0.025% below its July 2024 peak. Back then the Bank of Japan intervened, the yen dropped 12% in 25 days, the Nikkei fell nearly 29%, and Bitcoin crashed 30% to exactly $49,000 on August 5th. With the Bank of Japan now limited to only two more interventions before November and a recent attempt in April or May already fading, the setup is uncomfortably close to a repeat.
Aaron lays out the specific price levels to watch on USD/JPY: a close below 157 on the weekly would likely send the pair back toward 140, while a breakout above 162 could trigger a global yen carry trade unwind affecting not just Bitcoin and the Nikkei but traditional finance indices worldwide. He ties this into the four-year cycle framework, noting that 2026 is a bottom year, 2027 is a recovery year, and 2028 is the rally year. A flush to $49,000 for Bitcoin would bring the total crypto market cap down roughly 20% to around $1.54 trillion, hitting the next real support step. Aaron argues that this kind of washout is exactly what the altcoin market needs and is ultimately to the benefit of anyone who wants to accumulate at the real bottom before the next bull run.
📖 Chapters 📖
00:00 Bitcoin Bear Flag Validated
02:50 Bear Flag Outcome & Bearish Continuation
05:11 Artificial Support Levels & Downside Targets
08:45 Total Market Cap & Altcoin Flush
13:26 Stablecoin Dominance Chart Explained
15:33 USD/JPY Approaching July 2024 High
19:42 Bank of Japan Running Out of Options
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🔔 Disclaimer: The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome.