BTC is above $81,000 despite the week it had. But the real test comes now.
Bitcoin showed impressive resilience over the past several days, even as everything was seemingly going against it. From the CLARITY Act setback in the US Senate to the Fed and BOJ hiking rates, the cryptocurrency, being a risk-on asset, was expected to suffer.
And it did for a bit, slumping to a three-week low at $75,000 on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the initial shock was quickly absorbed, and the bulls returned on Friday with a major push that drove the asset to over $81,000 for a two-week peak. Moreover, it has remained there on Saturday, unlike the previous breakout attempts, which has prompted some analysts to predict the start of the bull market – but only if this condition is met.
The Real Test
Crypto Rover and CryptoGoos jointly highlighted $81,000 as the immediate breakout level, arguing that a successful move through it could quickly put $100,000 back on the table, followed by potentially $120,000. The asset has already tested the first part of that highly optimistic scenario, but another closely watched technical barrier just sits above the current level.
CryptoGoos pointed to bitcoin’s 50-week moving average, positioned at around $81,700 at the moment. The analyst said reclaiming that line would represent confirmation that BTC has transitioned back into a bull market. Recall that bitcoin tested it on a couple of occasions several weeks ago, but to no permanent avail.
The level is particularly interesting because other data identifies the low-$82,000 region as an important resistance zone. Bitcoin’s 365-day MA has recently hovered there, reinforcing the idea that the current zone could be more significant than the psychological $80,000 mark itself.
As such, breaking past $80,000 and even $81,000 might not be enough for now, as BTC would need to overcome the $82,000 area to prove it has the power to turn this into something more than another failed breakout attempt.
Another Major Gate
Fellow analyst EGRAG CRYPTO offered an even higher threshold before declaring that BTC’s macro bullish structure has returned. He outlined the 100-period EMA on the asset’s five-day chart, which currently sits near $90,000. Falling below this indicator has historically coincided with bearish pressure, but reclaiming it, retesting it, and subsequently bouncing has provided much stronger bullish confirmation.
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Consequently, the analyst believes a five-day close above $90,000 followed by a successful retest would be necessary before the bull can officially call it their own market phase.