Bitcoin (BTC) fell more than 2% on Monday as US-Iran war nerves again guided macro markets.
Key points:
- Bitcoin gave back early-week gains as its downside extended toward 3% on Monday.
- Two key moving averages hang in the balance amid macro uncertainty over the war in Iran.
- Bulls need to clear the low $80,000 area next, says market analysis.
Crypto exec: Bitcoin needs to clear bull market support band
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting local lows of $76,567 on Bitstamp, giving back earlier gains.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The pair had managed a weekly candle close above a key moving average — something that market participants had hoped would allow it to avoid a fresh retracement.
“Bitcoin just reclaimed the 21W EMA for the first time since Oct 2025,” trader Ryan Hogue noted in a post on X.
“$84.5K (200DMA) looks like the next stop this week.”
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Ryan Hogue/X
Nic Puckrin, CEO and cofounder of crypto education platform Coin Bureau, added that Bitcoin reclaiming its bull market support band — two moving averages of which the 21-week EMA is one — was now key.
“We are right in the middle of the Bull Market Support Band. This has historically served as a key support for bull markets. We broke below the band in October last year,” he told X followers.
“While 80k is acting as a resistance right now, if we flip the band to support, it would point to a major macro-bullish shift.”
BTC/USD one-day chart with bull market support band. Source: Nic Puckrin/X
Crypto markets “shaping up for more upside”
Uncertainty over progress between the US and Iran on ending the war nonetheless directed Bitcoin lower at the Wall Street open, along with US stocks.
Related: First 21-week trend line reclaim since October 2025: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Oil conversely began to gain, with WTI crude reaching $97.50 per barrel to near two-week highs.
CFDs on US WTI crude oil four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Commenting, trading company QCP Capital suggested that Iran’s foreign minister flying to Russia for talks with President Vladimir Putin was “reviving concerns of broader geopolitical alignment and escalation, and adding to market uncertainty.”
“Whether the next leg higher proves to be another classic bull trap or a more durable recovery will hinge on BTC’s ability to close above 82k,” it wrote in its latest Market Color analysis.
QCP added that corporate earnings represented another source of potential risk-asset volatility for the week ahead.
BTC/USDT six-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
Elsewhere, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe was confident about a breakout beyond the current multimonth trading range.
“The markets are still shaping up for more upside, and it’s still holding crucial levels,” he wrote on the day.
“I think that we’ll see $85-88K in May and correct/consolidate from there.”