Bitcoin’s (BTC) range-bound trading within the $60,000 to $73,000 range is impressive, especially when considering the macroeconomic backdrop of Brent crude oil rising to levels not seen since 2008, a hot war between the US, Israel and Iran, and a volatile stock market where the S&P 500 index trades at a 3.95% year-to-date loss.
Despite these intensifying headwinds, Bitcoin buyers have shown a steady appetite for buying the price drops to $60,000, and while the level currently holds as support, the risk of lower prices is not zero.
Bitcoin’s 1-day chart shows a bearish continuation pattern, with one pattern confirmed on Jan. 20 as BTC price entered a correction to $60,014, and a second bear flag currently in play. Every price rally to the flag’s overhead trendline has been rebuffed since Feb. 8, and technical analysis stresses the importance of a rally and multi-day candle close above $76,000 to negate the pattern.
Ideally, a rally to $76,000 would hold through a 2- to 3-day consecutive-candle close, followed by a retest of the trendline at $75,000 to confirm a support-resistance flip, where a former resistance level is now confirmed as support.
Analysis by chartered market technician Aksel Kibar predicts a potential price drop to $52,500. Referencing analysis from March 18, Kibar said that a,
“Breakdown of the lower boundary will be the signal for a possible move toward $52,500.”
Related: Bitcoin traders forecast short-term downside even as BTC price chases $68K
Data from Velo highlights the relatively flat market demand across Bitcoin’s spot and futures markets. Although traders appear to view instances where BTC’s funding rate turns negative as a buying opportunity, their confidence is largely absent during rallies into the bear flag’s trendline resistance.
Evidence of this is seen in Bitcoin’s aggregated open interest remaining pinned below $20 billion, a level not seen since Feb. 2 when BTC traded near $79,000.
Regarding Kibar’s $52,500 price prediction and its alignment with Bitcoin’s futures markets, Hyblock liquidation heatmap data shows a large number of leveraged long positions at risk of liquidation if BTC falls into the $63,000 to $65,000 range.
Below this is a liquidity gap, and the next block of open margin long positions starts in the $57,500 to $56,000 range.
The current price action essentially reflects a market that trades sideways and consolidates as traders search for capital flow or narrative-related factors that would push them into larger directional bets.
Until such a catalyst emerges, it’s likely that Bitcoin will continue to trade within its $10,000 range, with $60,000 as the lowest key support and $70,000 as the most challenging level of resistance.
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