Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under $78,000 following Wednesday’s Wall Street open after US inflation data came in above expectations.
Key points:
- Bitcoin sees further downside after US PCE inflation data came in 0.1% higher than expected in July.
- Markets await Nvidia Q2 earnings release as Wednesday’s next potential volatility catalyst.
- BTC price analysis warns over 25% weekly gains forming a bear market relief rally.
Higher-than-expected PCE data pressures Bitcoin
Data from TradingView tracked up to 1% daily BTC price losses, with US stocks also opening lower and gold breaking below $4,600 per ounce.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The downside came after the July print of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), known as the Federal Resrve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, hit 3.7% year-on-year, above the anticipated 3.6%.
“From the preceding month, the PCE price index for July increased 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.2 %,” the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) official release confirmed.
US PCE index data (screenshot). Source: BEA
Markets appeared disappointed by the results following June’s unexpected drop in PCE gains, which included their first month-on-month decrease in six years.
“US inflation continues to run at nearly double the Fed’s 2.0% target,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter responded in a post on X.
The PCE numbers come a day before the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole economic symposium, with chair Kevin Warsh due to make the keynote speech on Friday.
Investors are watching for today’s Q2 earnings report from technology giant Nvidia report, anticipated to bring short-term risk-asset volatility. The company is expected to record $92.3 billion quarterly revenue, including CPU revenue that analysts at Raymond James forecast could grow from 3% to 5% of NVDA’s total by 2028, expanding its addressable market.
Related: Supply absorption ‘key question’ as Bitcoin fails to reclaim $80K: Analysis
Analyst sets key targets for BTC price monthly close
Examining recent price action, Bitcoin market participants turned to the upcoming August monthly candle close.
Urging a cautious approach, trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that BTC/USD was in danger of continuing its series of lower highs in place since October 2025.
“A Monthly Close below the blue resistance would not just solidify another Macro Lower High but would also build a confluent resistance in association with the Macro Downtrend,” he commented on X alongside a chart showing a downward-sloping resistance trend line.
BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com
Rekt Capital added that unless the cycle of lower highs was broken, Bitcoin’s rebound over the past week could still be classed as a “relief rally” within the broader bear market. He focused on the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,251 as a further trend line to reclaim and hold going forward, with Bitcoin’s last monthly close above it coming in October 2025.
BTC/USD one-month chart with 50-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView