Bitcoin traded near $62,600 on Tuesday, down 0.3% over 24 hours and roughly flat on the week, per CoinDesk data. The market is steady on the surface but the macro backdrop underneath it has turned.
President Trump reinstated the U.S. blockade of Iranian ships through the Strait of Hormuz and demanded a 20% fee on all other cargo moving through the waterway, reviving a conflict that a June peace deal had appeared to settle.
Brent crude rose as much as 2.8% to about $85 a barrel, its second day of gains, and traders lifted bets on a Fed rate hike.
That combination runs directly against crypto. Oil pushing higher feeds the inflation pressure that kept the Fed hawkish through June, and the easing of that pressure was much of what let bitcoin recover from its late-June lows near $58,000. The peace trade is now unwinding, and rate-hike odds are climbing back.
Bitcoin has spent a month between roughly $59,000 and $66,000, and the majors are mixed. Ether held near $1,783 and is up on the week, while Solana, XRP and Hyperliquid are all down 5% or more over seven days.
Today’s June inflation print is the more immediate test. A soft number would ease the rate-hike pressure the Iran news just revived. A hot one, especially with oil climbing, would stack a second hawkish signal onto the first, two weeks before the Fed meets July 28 and 29.