Bitcoin just closed below the 200-week moving average. In fourteen years it’s only happened once without a catastrophic systemic collapse causing it.
The weekly RSI has hit oversold exactly four times since 2012. Three times it marked the exact bottom. The fourth time was June 2022 — and it would have been the bottom too, if FTX hadn’t blown up afterward.
Charlie Munger said buying quality assets at the 200-week moving average beats the market over time. The problem is almost nobody has that discipline.
Bitcoin whales just bought $16 billion. ETF outflows all year total $5 billion.
The bears need a crisis. The bulls need history to repeat.
History has a better track record.
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0:00 Bitcoin Breaks The 200 Week Line
0:38 Is This The Bottom Or A 40K Crash
1:04 Weekly RSI Oversold Four Times
2:46 Every 200 Week Test Since 2015
4:29 The 63K Reclaim Level
5:28 Taking The 40K Bear Case Seriously
6:16 Whales Bought 16 Billion In Bitcoin
7:41 Why 2026 Is Not 2022
9:13 Why FTX Cannot Happen Again
10:23 The 2015 Playbook And Munger
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