Bitcoin may still have further downside ahead, as crypto traders have yet to display the level of fear typically associated with a market bottom, according to Santiment founder Maksim Balashevich.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin could still fall toward $75,000 as social media sentiment remains too optimistic, according to Santiment’s Maksim Balashevich.
- The analyst says market bottoms usually form during fear and pessimism, not confidence in a quick rebound.
- Japan’s rate hike adds downside risk, though a deeper pullback could create a better long-term setup.
Speaking in a YouTube video published Friday, Balashevich said Bitcoin could still fall toward the $75,000 level, arguing that sentiment across social media remains too optimistic for a durable bottom to form.
A move to that level would represent a drop of roughly 15% from Bitcoin’s current price near $88,000, based on CoinMarketCap data.
Bitcoin’s $75K Zone ‘Tempting’ as Trader Optimism Clouds Market Bottom
“It looks very tempting to come even closer to it,” Balashevich said, referring to the $75,000 zone.
His caution stems from what he described as persistent confidence among traders that the recent pullback will quickly reverse.
According to Balashevich, true market bottoms are usually marked by widespread pessimism, frustration and fear, rather than hope.
“The crowd isn’t scared enough for a bottom,” Santiment said in a separate report released the same day.
He pointed to retail-focused online discussions where traders are already calling for a renewed rally, citing macro developments such as interest rate moves in Japan.
“They’re mostly discussing that bears got caught and now we’ll continue up from here,” Balashevich said. “These kinds of statements are not what I want to see.”
Japan’s central bank raised interest rates to a 30-year high of 0.75% on Friday, a decision that has historically coincided with sharp corrections in Bitcoin.
Previous rate hikes in Japan have been followed by drawdowns of around 20% in the cryptocurrency, adding to concerns that more downside could still materialize.
Despite his near-term caution, Balashevich said a deeper pullback could create a more attractive setup for traders.
A move lower, he argued, would flush out remaining optimism and potentially reset sentiment to levels more consistent with a sustainable recovery.
Analysts Split on Bitcoin’s 2026 Outlook as Market Signals Diverge
Not all analysts share that view. On Thursday, Fidelity’s director of global macro research, Jurrien Timmer, suggested Bitcoin could “take a year off” in 2026, with prices potentially falling as low as $65,000.
Others are more constructive. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan has said he expects 2026 to be an “up year” for Bitcoin, citing longer-term adoption trends.
Katherine Dowling, president of Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company, recently forecast that Bitcoin would reach $150,000 by the end of 2026, citing “the trifecta of a positive regulatory environment, quantitative easing, and institutional inflows.”
Market indicators paint a mixed picture. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained in “Extreme Fear” territory since mid-December, posting a score of 20 on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index recently showed a strong “Bitcoin Season” reading, suggesting traders are rotating into Bitcoin and away from higher-risk altcoins.
The post Bitcoin May Not Have Bottomed Yet as Social Media Fear Remains Low: Analyst appeared first on Cryptonews.