Bitcoin’s latest price action has run into a technical wall, and crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader believes the rejection could become more serious if one nearby support level fails. Particularly, technical analysis shows that the price action looks uncomfortably close to a crash under $76,000.
Bitcoin’s 200-Day Moving Average Has Become The First Major Rejection Zone
Bitcoin reached $82,400 on May 6 before stalling at the 200-day moving average, pulling back to as low as $74,000 during the most recent weekend. Merlijn’s chart analysis compares this current 2026 setup on the daily candlestick timeframe with Bitcoin’s 2022 structure.
Related Reading
Looking at the 2022 example, Bitcoin pushed into the 200-day moving average around $48,000 in early April, failed to hold that level, and then continued lower until the price fell to as low as $28,000 in May. That move turned out to be a decline of about 40% from the rejection area.
The current chart shows a similar technical idea, although the price levels are different. Bitcoin recently attempted to recover into $80,000 in the middle of May, but the red 200-day moving average acted as a ceiling. The rejection from that zone has placed the focus on the short-term support around $76,000, which Merlijn identified as the level to watch. If $76,000 breaks, then Bitcoin could play out a price action similar to the 2022 one.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @MerlijnTrader On X
Losing $76,000 Could Speed Up Drop Below $67,000
According to analysts at K33 Research, Bitcoin’s rejection at the 200-day moving average mirrors patterns seen during previous market cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2022.The most important level for Bitcoin bulls to hold now is $76,000. A move below $76,000 would weaken the pattern because it would erase the higher-low structure that formed after Bitcoin’s push from the mid-$70,000 range in May. “Lose it, the move accelerates,” the analyst said.
Related Reading
If $76,000 breaks, Merlijn has a clear first downside target: the $67,000 CME gap. CME gaps form because Bitcoin is always trading continuously on crypto exchanges even on weekends, but CME futures pause during weekends and market closures. A gap can appear on the chart when futures reopen at a different price from where they closed, and most of the time, this gap always acts as a price magnet.
Right now, Bitcoin is trading at $77,233, which means it has not confirmed the bearish follow-through Merlijn is warning about. However, as long as Bitcoin keeps trading below the 200-day moving average and keeps pressing against $76,000, then there’s a possibility that it will fall to the $67,000 CME gap. On the other hand, a reclaim of the $79,000 to $80,000 range this week would reduce the immediate risk of a crash to $67,000.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com