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Ahmed Barakat
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Bitcoin open interest fell by 13.5% in 10 days, dropping from 321,497 BTC to 278,151 BTC even as the underlying price declined only about 5% over the same window. That gap between derivatives unwind, and spot price action signals deliberate repositioning.
Bitcoin price currently trades under $77,000, down from its September 3 high of $82,300 but little changed day over day. The open question is if the leverage reset has actually cleared the path to a clean support test at $76,000-$77,000, or simply transferred the burden onto spot demand and ETF flows.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has scheduled a cloture vote on the CLARITY Act for today, 2:15 p.m. Eastern, the first full-chamber test of comprehensive crypto market-structure legislation. Republicans hold 53 seats, meaning they need at least seven Democratic votes to advance the bill, and possibly more if any Republican breaks ranks.
The revised 630-page draft, published September 10, folds in more than 114 Democratic provisions, including a new registration category for “non-decentralized” DeFi protocols with identifiable operators overseeing consensus rules or functionality. Distributed ledger technology and raw software code are explicitly excluded from that category.
Layered on top is a Federal Reserve rate decision due within 72 hours of the current market snapshot. Futures priced a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point hike as of September 10, up sharply from 52.2% a month earlier, undercutting the rate-cut narrative many crypto traders had been positioned for. More on how that repricing is showing up in options and futures markets is available via Cryptonews’ coverage of Fed-hike odds on Kalshi.
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What the Leverage Reset Proves?
The 43,346 BTC drop in open interest happened before the catalysts, not after them, which is the structural detail that matters. Traders concluded the risk tied to two binary events couldn’t be adequately managed with leverage on, so they cut it proactively rather than getting forced out by a drawdown.
The spot side tells a related story. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust recorded $19.23 million in redemptions on September 11, or the largest single-day outflow among U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs that day, though barely 0.03% of IBIT’s reported $60.6 billion in assets. Earlier reporting on daily flow swings around this period underscores how concentrated the U.S. ETF market has become around a single vehicle.
That concentration is precisely why redemptions carry more weight than they did in 2024: ETF outflows convert into spot sales, and against a thinner free float, those sales move the price more.
It’s worth remembering the mechanism cuts both ways; three weeks of August inflows totaling $3.8 billion pushed Bitcoin from roughly $63,000 to $81,700, a rally built on the same structural sensitivity now working in reverse.
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$76,000-$77,000: The Next Technical Test for Bitcoin Price
The technical picture is split. TradingView’s weekly overview still reads buy, with long-term indicators intact, even as short-term sub-gauges sit neutral. InvestTech’s algorithmic overall read is a hold, but its one-to-six-week recommendation is negative, flagging a breakdown from a horizontal channel and a test of support near $77,200.
| Scenario | Trigger | Target Zone |
| Breakdown | Support fails, spot demand stays weak | $74,000-$75,000 |
| Base case | Holds current range | $76,000-$77,000 |
| Recovery | Spot demand returns, reclaims $82,500 | $83,000-$86,000 |
Our negative near-term signal centers on $76,500 as the level whose decisive breach would reinforce further downside, while the opposite side of that formation would flip the signal positive. In short, the weekly trend is still constructive, but the tape immediately in front of the CLARITY vote and the Fed decision is not.
On-chain analyst Garrett Jin has put a 70% probability on $60,000 marking the cycle bottom, which would place the current consolidation less than halfway. What’s clearer is the positioning itself: leverage has been cut, ETF-linked spot exposure has been trimmed, and capital reserves have been built for either direction.
Crypto markets are structured to absorb the outcome of this week’s votes and decisions, not to predict them.
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