Bitcoin is showing tentative signs of stabilization after its pullback from $74,000, but Glassnode says the recovery still lacks the ingredients of a decisive bullish turn. In its March 9 Weekly Market Pulse, the analytics firm described a market that is improving at the margins even as spot participation, capital flows and broader conviction remain subdued.
Glassnode’s overview is cautiously constructive, but only up to a point. The firm wrote, “ETF activity remains a relative area of strength. Net inflows accelerated and trading volumes picked up.” In the same breath, though, it stressed that “overall, conditions are stabilizing” while “capital flows remain soft,” a framing that captures the report’s central tension: some internals are healing, but the market still looks fragile rather than fully re-energized.
Glassnode Sees Bitcoin Market Stabilizing
That fragility is most visible in spot markets. Glassnode said the 14-day RSI rose from 45.2 to 47.7, a modest improvement in momentum that points to firmer buyer activity without suggesting the move is overheated. But the more important spot signals moved the other way. Spot CVD fell from negative $84.4 million to negative $97.6 million, indicating heavier sell-side pressure from aggressive traders, while spot volume dropped from $9.8 billion to $9.1 billion. The report said participants are showing less urgency as they wait for stronger directional cues, leaving sellers with an outsized role in price discovery.
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Derivatives paint a more complicated picture. Futures open interest climbed 5.1% to $29.4 billion, showing leverage and speculative engagement are rebuilding, while perpetual CVD surged 201.7% to $172.6 million, a sign of aggressive buy-side activity in leveraged markets. At the same time, funding flipped sharply lower to negative $391.7K, falling below Glassnode’s statistical low band and signaling stronger demand for short exposure. In other words, leveraged traders are active again, but they are not aligned on direction.
Options markets, by contrast, looked less defensive. Open interest rose from $32.8 billion to $34.1 billion, the volatility spread narrowed from negative 25.78% to negative 17.64%, and 25-delta skew fell from 16.51% to 11.72%. Glassnode’s interpretation was that fear is moderating and demand for downside protection is easing, leaving options positioning more balanced than it was a week earlier.
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The clearest area of strength remains the US spot ETF complex. Weekly net inflows rose from $776 million to $934 million, while trading volume jumped from $16.0 billion to $23.1 billion. But even there, the signal is not cleanly bullish. ETF MVRV dropped from 1.07 to negative 0.53, pushing the average ETF holder underwater. Glassnode said that shift is “consistent with capitulation-like conditions,” suggesting institutional-style demand is still coming in even as existing positioning remains under stress.
On-chain data tells a similar story of stabilization without renewed heat. Active addresses slipped 2.0% to 649.3K and fee volume fell 5.1% to $170.5K, both signs of a quieter network backdrop, even as transfer volume rose 23.7% to $5.9 billion. Realized cap change improved from negative 2.4% to negative 1.9%, suggesting outflows are easing, but hot capital share fell to 23.3% and remained well below the statistical low band. That points to a market still dominated by older capital, with little evidence yet of fresh speculative churn.
Profitability metrics improved modestly, with supply in profit rising from 54.6% to 56.8%, NUPL improving from negative 31.9% to negative 26.7%, and the realized profit-to-loss ratio lifting from negative 0.8 to negative 0.7. That eases some of the pressure built up during the decline.
Still, Glassnode’s broader message is hard to miss: Bitcoin’s market structure looks steadier than it did a week ago, but until spot demand returns in force, the rebound remains more tentative than convincing.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $70,755.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com