Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in fighting form as $80,000 support survives a volatile weekly close.
Key points:
- Bitcoin preserves the potential for upside continuation as one trader pencils in $85,000 for the coming days.
- Consolidation is also a popular prediction as BTC/USD surfs CME futures gaps and grabs liquidity.
- The US-Iran war continues to provide snap market turbulence across crypto and risk assets.
- Buyer commitment to BTC leads analysis to forecast a longer-term uptrend.
- Two Bitcoin price metrics are about to deliver their first “golden cross” in nearly three years.
Latest BTC price targets include $85,000
Bitcoin saw classic end-of-week volatility thanks to geopolitical developments as price briefly passed $82,000.
Data from TradingView showed that the move was short-lived, however, with BTC/USD quickly dropping back toward the $80,000 mark.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The result was liquidity grabs that neutralized both long and short BTC positions on exchange order books. Data from CoinGlass puts the 24-hour crypto liquidation total at more than $400 million.
Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
“The Liquidation Heatmap on $BTC is currently looking STACKED with liquidity,” X trading account Cryptic Trades commented in a post just before the volatility hit.
“Both sides are filled with liquidity on both sides, which is why I believe that market makers are going to flush out both sides before there’s a bigger directional move out of this range.”
Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass
Bitcoin is not without its bullish targets, however, as the mid-$80,000 range comes into view.
In an X thread mapping out the week’s potential price moves, trader CrypNuevo argued that BTC/USD holding $80,000 as support was the ideal foundation for continuation higher.
“Price has found acceptance above $81k and the EMAs have caught up,” he wrote, referring to moving averages (MAs) on daily time frames.
“Therefore, we’re expecting price to potentially push higher to $84k-$85k next week.”
BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X
Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe continued the bullish sentiment, saying that the “trend remains upward.”
“The 21-MA is below the current price; there’s still a lot of momentum, and there’s no breakdown of the higher-high, higher-low structure at all,” he told X followers on Monday.
“There’s no reason to believe that we’re stalling soon.”
BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
Bitcoin lacks futures “trigger” to break consolidation
Some market participants believe that conditions are not yet right for a decisive BTC price breakout.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital is one of them, pointing to nearby “gaps” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures.
These gaps, which are created when BTC/USD sees weekend volatility, often act as short-term BTC price magnets.
“Bitcoin has reached its CME Gap (red). BTC is holding the bottom of it as support but rejecting from the top of it,” Rekt Capital told X followers while analyzing the weekly futures chart.
“Price will need to Weekly Close above the top of this area if it wants to rally higher. Until that trigger is in -> consolidation.”
CME Bitcoin futures one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
Trader Daan Crypto Trades revealed other gaps around the spot price.
“We now have a few gaps left in close proximity: $78K, $80.3K & $84K,” he confirmed, with the highest gap capping recent local highs.
CME Bitcoin futures one-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Elsewhere, Cryptic Trades argued that the combination of declining open interest and rising price should deliver similar range-bound trading conditions for now.
“Because of this, I believe the most likely short-term outcome remains further consolidation, with both longs and shorts getting flushed before the market makes a larger directional move out of this range,” it concluded.
CPI leads key inflation week for Fed
The US-Iran war continues to be the main source of flash volatility for crypto and risk assets this week.
Bitcoin’s weekly close was marked by reactionary behavior as markets digested the latest developments in peace negotiations.
After trading terms back and forth — which had given markets reason for optimism last week — US President Donald Trump said that he did not “like” Iran’s latest proposals.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump called the terms “totally unacceptable.”
Source: Truth Social
The result was WTI crude oil quickly heading back above $100, while BTC/USD spiked to near $82,500 before giving back all its gains.
CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“US-Iran peace talks are being priced-out again,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in a response on X.
Oil prices will remain in the spotlight as new US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is released. As Cointelegraph reported, this inflation gauge is particularly sensitive to oil-market volatility.
The April Producer Price Index (PPI) release will follow on Wednesday.
Source: Cointelegraph/X
Commenting, investment manager Peter Tarr highlighted the implications of the data for Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to chair the Federal Reserve
“Elevated oil prices will show impact reports. Important report for Warsh era Fed and markets,” he wrote on X.
Trump last month said that he “would” be disappointed if Warsh failed to cut interest rates at the Fed’s June meeting. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, however, shows that markets see only a 4.2% chance of that outcome.
Fed target-rate probabilities for June 17 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
While this could be a headwind for crypto, traders believe that the CPI result itself is already “priced in” to BTC price action.
Analysis sees “sustainable uptrend” for Bitcoin
The latest Bitcoin analysis remains hopeful that a “sustained” market rebound is around the corner.
In one of its QuickTake blog posts on Sunday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant flagged positive changes in exchange-trader behavior.
“Looking at the $BTC Spot Taker CVD (90-day) chart on CryptoQuant, we are seeing a significant shift in capital flow structure,” contributor Researcher Rei summarized.
Rei referred to cumulative volume delta (CVD) data, which records the difference between buy and sell volume at given price points over time.
“Following a neutral accumulation phase, the indicator has turned Green. This means Buyers are no longer waiting at lower price levels (Limit Orders) but have started “sweeping” the order book directly (Market Buy),” he continued.
The data implies that large-volume investors have flipped from speculation to a hodl-based mentality, while macro conditions support the return of liquidity to crypto.
Rei described Bitcoin as a “top-tier growth asset.”
“Real demand has prevailed,” he concluded.
“When bulls are willing to pay higher prices to own $BTC, a sustainable uptrend usually follows.”
Bitcoin spot taker CVD (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Onchain metrics prepare rare golden cross
More good news comes from two other BTC price metrics about to perform their first “golden cross” since mid-2023.
Related: Bitcoin Bollinger Bands push key breakout as creator acts on positive signal
Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the price at which the supply last moved, also known as its “realized cap,” is one of them.
Recently, MVRV has rebounded from local lows to record some of its highest readings of 2026.
“This signal reflects a clear improvement in Bitcoin’s market valuation relative to its realized value, suggesting that the market has begun to regain an important portion of its momentum following a period of decline and rebalancing during the first months of the year,” CryptoQuant commented last week.
Bitcoin MVRV ratio. Source: CryptoQuant
Now, MVRV is about to cross the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time in nearly three years. Data shows that past golden crosses have preceded snap BTC price upside.
“This signal is a representative trend reversal signal and is a bullish indicator,” CryptoQuant contributor CW8900 confirmed on Sunday.
BTC/USD chart with MVRV data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant