After flying past $82,000 at the start of the week, Bitcoin fell below $79,000 at one point yesterday before recovering near $80,000.
According to analysts, that selloff was not random, but rather, it was the result of three different pressures hitting at the same time.
What the On-Chain Data Showed Before the Drop
The warning signs were building way before prices moved, as noted by on-chain technician Easy On Chain, who said that exchange outflows on May 11 had already collapsed to 19,995 BTC. That number is far below the early May range of 28,000 to 35,000 BTC and well under the period’s daily average of 25,600 BTC.
When outflows fall that sharply, it means that there are fewer coins being withdrawn from exchanges, which means the sell-side supply sitting on platforms is growing rather than shrinking. That is what Easy On Chain calls a “positive Netflow,” and it made the market’s ability to absorb downward pressure considerably weaker.
At the same time, the derivatives market was pricing in a decline. Between May 8 and 10, open interest climbed to 1.04 times the analysis period’s average, while funding rates turned negative and kept deepening into May 10.
It means that traders were actively building short positions, betting on a drop, and when the selling pressure finally arrived, it hit a market full of leveraged longs with nowhere to go.
“On May 12 alone, long liquidations reached 11.8 times the short liquidations,” the market watcher wrote. “Over three days (May 11-13), a total of approximately $109.7M in long positions were forcefully liquidated, acting as the primary driver of the crash.”
Finally, there was the release of US CPI and PPI data, which, alongside growing inflation concerns, gave traders the trigger they needed.
Another analyst, Carmelo Alemán, linked the move to concentrated whale selling, saying wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC sold some 7,650 BTC during the decline, which was equal to about $616 million at average prices near $80,500.
That period saw Bitcoin drop from around $81,000 to below $79,000 while open interest went up by almost $590 million, a sign that fresh leverage entered the market as prices fell.
Where Bitcoin Stands Now
At the time of writing, BTC was almost 300 bucks below $80,000, after shedding about 2% of its value in the last 24 hours and a similar 2% over the past seven days.
However, across 30 days, the asset is up nearly 7%, although it is still down over 23% year-over-year and stuck more than 36% below its October 2025 all-time high near $126,000.
For now, Easy On Chain says traders should focus on two signals: whether exchange netflows return negative, which would show renewed withdrawals, and whether liquidation pressure in leveraged longs begins to cool. Until then, they claim, Bitcoin’s attempts to reclaim $82,000 may continue running into resistance.
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