The crypto market is heading toward the end of Q3 with performance that stands in stark contrast to its historically sluggish summer season. BTC USD is on course for one of its strongest third-quarter performances on record, while Ethereum has already surpassed its previous quarterly benchmark.
Bitcoin has climbed from around $58,500 at the start of July to about $84,000, a gain of roughly 43.5%. If BTC holds those levels through the end of September, Q3 2026 would rank as its second-best third-quarter performance ever, surpassed only by 2017, when Bitcoin surged about 80.4%.
Ethereum has performed even more strongly. ETH has gained around 71% during the third quarter, comfortably exceeding its previous Q3 record of approximately 66.5%, set in 2025.
If Ethereum holds its current levels through the end of September, Q3 2026 will mark the cryptocurrency’s strongest third-quarter performance on record.
Bullish ETF Inflows Adding Support to the BTC USD Rally
Bitcoin’s recent surge has been supported by a resurgence in institutional demand. According to CoinGlass data, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted approximately $2.39Bn in net inflows from September 21 to September 24 alone. Notably, September 21 was the strongest day of this period, with net inflows reaching $999M.
This is significant for understanding the current market movement. The rally is being bolstered not only by activity in the derivatives markets but also by capital flowing through ETFs and increased spot-market demand.
Another challenge for the market came with the major quarterly options expiry on September 25. As previously reported, the total notional value of expiring Bitcoin and Ethereum options neared $18Bn, with about $16Bn tied to Bitcoin. Despite the potential for increased volatility, Bitcoin remained stable around the mid-$80,000 range.
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Bitcoin Enters Q4 in Great Shape, But Serious Resistance Lays Ahead
Following a strong third quarter, attention is gradually turning to potential levels that could limit the next phase of recovery. The next significant resistance zone is expected to be around $98,000 to $100,000.
However, a robust third quarter does not guarantee that the rally will continue. The key question is whether buyers can keep absorbing supply after BTC USD has risen over +40% and Ethereum (ETH) has gained more than +70% this quarter.
Historically, the fourth quarter has been stronger for the crypto market than the third. However, this year, Bitcoin and Ethereum are entering the fourth quarter after already posting substantial gains.
Going forward, price action will likely depend more on the durability of ETF inflows, spot demand, and investor behavior at these elevated price levels.
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