Bitcoin may have a roughly 77% chance of reaching new all-time highs within a year if historical BTC price patterns repeat.
Key points:
- Bitcoin reduces its drawdown from all-time highs from 50% to 35% with its rebound to $80,000.
- History shows that new all-time highs have come within a year during similar events.
- The Buffett indicator could be calling Bitcoin’s new $160,000 record highs in advance.
BTC price drawdown: Odds favor new all-time high
New research from network economist Timothy Peterson released on Tuesday shows what happens when BTC/USD claws back significant losses.
“I looked at every time Bitcoin went from a -50% drawdown to a -35% drawdown (the situation we are in today),” he revealed in a post on X.
Bitcoin dipped below $60,000 in late February, a move that brought its drawdown versus its $126,200 all-time highs beyond 50%.
Since then, conditions have eased, and price currently trades around $81,000. Against its October 2025 peak, the pair is 35% lower, per data from TradingView.
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
As Peterson confirms in an accompanying chart, such moves have characterized price action throughout its past bear markets. What is more exciting for Bitcoin bulls, however, is what traditionally comes next.
He added that “7 out of 9 times it hit a new all-time high within a year.”
BTC price drawdown data. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
The last time that a similar recovery took place was at the end of the 2022 bear market, which saw a maximum drawdown of just over 70%.
Data from onchain analytics platform Glassnode shows that it took until December 2023 for that correction to become 35% against all-time highs from two years prior.
Bitcoin’s new record high then came in March 2024.
BTC price drawdowns from all-time highs. Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin “looks cheap” amid $160,000 target
Despite uncertainty over geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions going forward, Bitcoin is not without its bullish predictions this month.
Related: BTC price target becomes $85K next: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Examining Bitcoin versus gold, Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, offered $160,000 per coin as a conservative estimate.
Sigel reported that the so-called Buffett indicator — the ratio of the total US stock market to GDP named after Warren Buffett — implies a BTC comeback move.
“Bitcoin looks cheap,” he told X followers on Monday.
“If it regains the 35x XBT/XAU cross implied by current levels of the Buffett Indicator, we’re looking at $160k, and that’s just catching up to where equities already are.”
BTC/USD versus Buffett indicator. Source: Matthew Sigel/X