U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds took in $137.3 million on Wednesday, October 28, their third straight day of inflows, while the Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.75% to 4% and two of its officials voted for a hike. The buying didn’t hold the price for long. Bitcoin rose to $81,788 after the decision, then fell to $79,710 overnight as a selloff in chip stocks spread to crypto.
BTC trades at $79,899, down 1.2% in 24 hours and 4.4% for October, which is on track to be its second losing October in a row. For traders following Bitcoin news into November, the calendar is crowded: the midterm elections, fresh jobs and inflation data, and a December rate hike that prediction markets now price at 79%.
So what do the ETF flows, the Fed and November’s record say?
The Fed holds steady.
The decision is 10-2.
Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for an increase. pic.twitter.com/nUKDM6n8Zp
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 28, 2026
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Bitcoin News: How Much Have Bitcoin ETFs Taken In This Week?
About $424 million in three sessions. SoSoValue’s daily figures show almost all of it went through BlackRock:
- Monday, October 26: $110.3 million, all into BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).
- Tuesday, October 27: $176.0 million, with none of the 12 funds losing money.
- Wednesday, October 28: $137.3 million, of which IBIT took $136.0 million and Bitwise’s BITB $1.3 million.
The run follows a rough patch. On October 22 the funds lost $635.6 million in a day, their biggest outflow since June, with IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC each shedding more than $200 million. Through Monday, October was still about $202 million in the red. The two days since have tipped it slightly positive, by roughly $110 million.
The 12 funds now hold $104.9 billion, about 6.4% of all Bitcoin by value, and have taken in $57.6 billion net since they launched in January 2024. IBIT alone holds $66.1 billion.
What Did the Fed Decide, and How Did Bitcoin React?
A hold, but not a quiet one. The Fed’s statement passed 10–2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voting for a quarter-point hike. It said the economy is “expanding at a strong pace” and inflation is still too high, and it left the next step to “the accumulation of more information.”
Chair Kevin Warsh gave no hint about December. “I don’t believe in forward guidance, absent exigent circumstances, absent a crisis,” he told reporters, adding that politics “played no role” six days before the midterms. Traders read the dissents as a lean toward tightening. Polymarket’s December market prices a quarter-point hike at 77%, about where it stood before the meeting.
Bitcoin took the decision calmly at first. It traded at $80,860 at 2 p.m. ET and rose 1.1% to $81,788 over the next two hours. The drop came later, during Asian trading, after Samsung’s chip unit missed analysts’ estimates and its shares fell more than 5%, pulling tech stocks lower.
BTC fell to $79,710 by 02:00 UTC, and more than $350 million in leveraged crypto bets were liquidated over 24 hours.
Bitcoin News for November: What Should Traders Expect?
A month of data that will decide whether December’s hike happens. The dates to watch:
- Thursday, October 29: September’s PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET, then Coinbase and Strategy earnings after the close.
- Friday, October 30: Deribit’s monthly options expiry, with about 135,700 BTC, roughly $10.8 billion, in open contracts.
- Tuesday, November 3: the U.S. midterm elections.
- Friday, November 6: the October jobs report, after September’s 29,000 new jobs.
- Tuesday, November 10: October consumer prices, on the date set in the BLS release calendar. September’s CPI rose 3.7% from a year earlier.
- December 9: the Fed’s next decision.
November’s reputation as a strong month for Bitcoin rests mostly on two years. On Binance, BTC rose in only three of the last eight Novembers. The big gains, 42.8% in 2020 and 37.2% in 2024, both came right after presidential elections. The two midterm years, 2018 and 2022, ended November down 36.6% and 16.2%.
Bitcoin’s November returns since 2018. Source: Binance
Eight years is a small sample, and both midterm Novembers fell in the middle of bear markets. Options traders aren’t betting on a big move either way. Deribit’s DVOL index, which tracks the 30-day volatility implied by Bitcoin options, stood at 36.5 on Wednesday, just under the 37 to 39 range it held for the previous two weeks.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Hold $79,221 Into November?
It is testing the area now. BTC trades at $79,899 on Binance, back under its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $80,789, a line it has crossed three times in the past week. The October 24 low of $79,221 is the floor that has held so far.
The one-year view is steadier than the week. The 200-day EMA has climbed from about $72,300 in late August to $76,476, and the 50-day crossed above it on September 12, the first such cross since it fell below in November 2025.
- Resistance: $84,898, the October 21 high, where the last rally stopped.
- Support: $79,221, the October 24 low. Below it, $76,264 to $76,476, the September 2 low and the 200-day EMA.
BTCUSDT Chart 1D TradingView
| Outlook | Trigger | Level to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Rebound | A daily close back above the 50-day EMA at $80,789 | $84,898, the October 21 high |
| Holding pattern | Holding between $79,221 and $84,898 | More sideways trade around the 50-day EMA |
| Sell-off | A daily close below $79,221 | $76,264 to $76,476, the September 2 low and the 200-day EMA |
The ETF buyers came back this week, but the Fed left December open and the price is still hostage to tech stocks. For Bitcoin news in the days ahead, the first test is today’s PCE report, and the next is the November 6 jobs data.
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Daniel Frances is a technical writer and Web3 educator specializing in macroeconomics and DeFi mechanics. A crypto native since 2017, Daniel leverages his background in on-chain analytics to author evidence-based reports and deep-dive guides. He holds certifications from The Blockchain Council, and is dedicated to providing “information gain” that cuts through market hype to find real-world blockchain utility.