Ethena [ENA] fell to a low of $0.235 on Monday after Bitcoin [BTC] momentarily dropped below the $84k-mark. Since then, Bitcoin has bounced by 3% in 12 hours, but ENA was only up 1.28% over the same period.
This may be a warning of a lack of relative strength and an absence of Ethena buyers in the market. Sentiment seemed lukewarm at best, and losses appeared more likely than any meaningful recovery in the short term.
The two timeframes – Mapping where Ethena stands
Source: ENA/USDT on TradingView
ENA was back at the $0.238 support that it had tested in late June. Back then, a two-week consolidation around this support level was followed by a rally beyond $0.8 by August.
For the same scenario to repeat itself, market sentiment needs to become bullish. A risk-on attitude towards crypto and especially altcoins is needed. At the time of writing, this did not seem likely. In fact, ENA’s bearish structure on the daily timeframe is likely to persist.
Source: ENA/USDT on TradingView
The 1-hour chart exhibited some interesting behavior over the past two weeks. Consolidation phases have been marked in purple on the chart above. One was a channel, another was a rough triangle.
The price action has been following Bitcoin and the wider market, and likes to build liquidity around key levels before hunting both longs and shorts down. Thereafter, the real impulse move can begin.
If this were to happen again, a consolidation around $0.238, followed by the next impulse move, is highly likely. Based on the structure, more downside may be anticipated next.
Technical health check
On both the daily and hourly timeframes, the OBV has been trending downwards. It signified the persistent selling pressure. Any bounce in ENA prices is for selling.
The RSI reflected a strong downward trend, which the brief rallies were unable to break.
Ethena floors and ceilings to watch
$0.238 and $0.218 were key support levels at press time. Losing $0.218 would indicate that the next downward move is inbound. At that point, the target would be $0.184-$0.192.
In the next few hours, a bounce to $0.25 might be possible, given the imbalance overhead. If this bounce can push past $0.258, the next short-term target would be $0.295. The $0.359-level is another swing level that could be a notable resistance.
Final Thoughts
- ENA was at the support it last tested in June, but the market sentiment was much more pessimistic this time, which meant traders should expect the downtrend to continue.
- Traders should be wary of these liquidation hunts, both of long and short positions.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion