 
 
Bitcoin may still face a significant downside if historical bear-market patterns continue to play out.
According to a recent technical analysis by TradingShot, BTC is following the exact structural blueprint observed in every prior bear cycle. Indicators now signal that the market has entered its early contraction phase.
The analyst points to the three-week stochastic oscillator, which has moved into the same zone where previous bear cycles completed their first phase before staging brief relief rallies.
Historically, this transition has occurred roughly two to three three-week candles after the cycle peak. In the current market, that signal appeared even faster, reinforcing the view that the bearish structure is already in motion.
Another factor is the speed at which Bitcoin’s decline toward long-term moving averages accelerates. This cycle marked the fastest approach to the one-week MA100 seen in a bear market correction, with similar tests of the three-week MA50 and MA100 likely ahead.
 
While that may sound alarming, the analyst argues it also reflects a broader trend of declining volatility across cycles.
Each successive bear market has produced smaller percentage drawdowns. The first cycle saw losses near 94%, followed by declines of 87%, 84%, and roughly 77% in the most recent cycle.
This steady deceleration suggests Bitcoin is maturing as adoption expands and market depth increases. Moredo, the current cycle’s drawdown is projected to peak around 60–70%.
Applying those parameters places a potential cycle bottom between $38K and $50K, with $50K cited as the more probable minimum target before a durable bottom forms.
Analysts also believe that stronger ETF inflows or accelerated adoption through corporate treasuries could limit downside, but further weakness is likely without those catalysts.
Meanwhile, CoinMarketCap data reflects growing caution. Bitcoin surged 1.28% in the past 24 hours to $89,313.
The move followed a break below the $88,000 support level, while delayed Federal Reserve easing and softer labor data intensified risk aversion.