How Low Can XRP Go If $1 Support Cracks?

XRP opens June with its most significant decline of the past 3 months. The $1.20 support band, which served as the absolute floor for months, is being breached, with the price now trading at $1.11. The RSI is also printing its lowest reading since February’s capitulation, and the next meaningful support is nearly $0.30 lower. This is not a pullback from resistance; it is likely a breakdown of the last line of defense.

Ripple Price Analysis: The USDT Pair

On the USDT chart, the $1.20 support band, which held strong during the February crash and has remained untouched since, is on the verge of breaking down. The RSI has also collapsed to approximately 20–25, nearing the oversold extreme seen at the February capitulation low. That reading alone warrants attention, as historically, RSI at these levels has preceded, at minimum, a sharp relief bounce even within a broader downtrend.

However, an oversold RSI does not mean a floor has been found on its own. The $1.20 level is now likely to flip into resistance, and any bounce needs to reclaim it on a sustained closing basis to suggest the breakdown is being reversed rather than simply paused.

Below the current price, the next structural reference is the $0.80 demand zone, which also converges with the descending channel’s lower boundary. This is a meaningful confluence of support, but still at a significantly lower level. The 100-day moving average at $1.35 and the 200-day moving average at $1.60 are now both heavily overhead, leaving XRP with a stack of resistance above and thin structural support below on the USDT-paired chart.

The BTC Pair

The BTC pair is telling a more resilient story. XRP/BTC is trading at 1,800 sats, holding above the recent lows at 1,740 sats. The RSI, which surged to 70 at the end of May in what looked like a meaningful momentum shift, has already faded back to 50, indicating that the brief strength has not followed through into sustained buying.

The price is sitting below the 1,850 sat short-term resistance after getting rejected by the level again, with the declining 100-day moving average at approximately 1,900 sats acting as the immediate dynamic overhead resistance. The fact that the ratio has held while the USDT pair broke down suggests the XRP weakness is partly a function of broader altcoin selling in dollar terms rather than XRP-specific deterioration against Bitcoin.

A confirmed close below 1740 sats on the BTC pair, particularly if it coincides with continued USDT pair weakness, would mark a definitive breakdown on both pairs simultaneously, which exposes the 1,500 sats area as the next reference below.