The crypto market’s “altcoin season” isn’t what it used to be. In past cycles, Bitcoin rallies gave way to altcoin booms, lifting almost every token. Now, new market trends suggest those days of indiscriminate gains are fading.
Analysts predict a more selective altcoin cycle – “the era of everything pumping is over.” In an interview with BeInCrypto, Hitesh Malviya, the founder of the crypto analytical tool DYOR, said that retail investors looking for the next big winner must adapt to these evolving trends.
How to Find Winning Altcoins Amidst Choppy Markets
Traditionally, altcoin season meant Bitcoin’s dominance fell, and most altcoins surged. That broad rally may be ending.
“If the idea of a full-blown alt season comes from past cycles, then that’s something I really don’t expect. What we have seen so far in altcoins was simply the blooming and bursting of a bubble that happened over two bull cycles and two bear cycles,” Malviya told BeInCrypto.
Market experts foresee a more nuanced phase where only the strongest projects thrive. In short, instead of a rising tide lifting all boats, the next altcoin season may favor quality (projects with real usage and revenue) over quantity.
Investors should focus on fundamentals like usage, revenue, and community growth—the market now rewards substance over hype. Indeed, interest in speculative sectors such as meme coins has drastically declined since late January 2025.
“The adoption curve will take a new shape upwards, while the speculative curve will lose its charm, introducing lower volatility in the market, providing more stable returns, and making the market less correlated to stocks. This will create a new asset class in crypto, which should have two major types of asset offerings—tokenized equities with strong cash flow (e.g., AAVE) and store-of-value assets (BTC, ETH),” Malviya continued.
A key reason for the evolution of the altcoin season is that liquidity now rotates between different narratives.
Liquidity flows toward compelling stories. There have been mini-cycles where certain themes catch fire – meme coins, AI tokens, DeFi projects, metaverse gaming, etc. Money chases one hot narrative, then moves to the next.
Savvy investors watch social media, developer activity, and news to catch emerging narratives early and get in before the crowd.
“Liquidity will always flow into different narratives at different times, as there are multiple categories within crypto—just like in stocks, where some categories always outperform others. The same market dynamics will be seen in crypto as well,” Malviya stated.
How to Find Potential Altcoin Season Winner? Identifying Strength in Downtrends
Malviya believes that investors should watch for altcoins showing relative strength during downturns. If an altcoin can hold its value or even rise while Bitcoin slides, that resilience signals strong demand (likely early accumulation).
“At DYOR, we offer a metric called Optimised Relative Strength, which helps track some of the best coins and narratives that have shown the highest strength in the past 7, 30 and 90 days. Coins that have outperformed against the broader market in the past 30 days have a great chance of rallying when the market finds a bottom and starts a fresh leg up,” Malviya explained.
Moreover, Malviya also discussed other fundamental metrics to track. These include:
- DEX Volume: Rising trading volumes on decentralized exchanges can push the native token’s prices higher.
- Total Value Locked (TVL): Growth in deposits and total value locked implies user trust – bullish for the lending protocol’s token.
- Derivatives Volume: Increasing on-chain trading activity means more traders and fees supporting its token.
- Oracle Total Value Secured (TVS): Climbing total value secured by an oracle (e.g., Chainlink) shows a greater reliance on it, boosting token demand.
- DePIN Revenue: Actual revenue from a DePIN project (real-world service) signals a sustainable model, not just hype.
Furthermore, Malviya also emphasized the tokenomics of a crypto project. He believes that even a great project can falter if its tokenomics are flawed.
Tokenomics – a token’s supply and incentive design can make or break an altcoin. Good tokenomics (fair distribution, strong utility) create lasting demand, whereas poor tokenomics (excessive inflation or constant insider unlocks) often doom a project.
“Ideally, the community and ecosystem fund should get at least 60% of the supply to generate actual demand for the product by incentivizing developers and users through planned token emissions at different stages. Tokens are actually created to drive real user demand for the product. They can be considered as bribes to get user attention, but since these bribes are also tradable in the market, they can create a ripple effect that could potentially lead to the product’s failure. This happens because retail sentiment often mixes both the product and the token, where, in most cases, the token price eventually determines how much adoption the product gets,” Malviya elaborated.
Lastly, he shares tools that can help users potentially find the next winner for the altcoin season.
- DYOR – Users can use DYOR to find relative strength data on more than 200+ coins, detailed demand-side tokenomics data on 70+ coins, and fundamental data on 65+ coins, along with detailed research reports on top projects.
- DeFiLlama – It tracks multi-chain DeFi data like TVL and volumes.
- Dune Analytics – It is a community-driven platform offering custom on-chain data dashboards.
“The community should learn to use DeFiLlama and DUNE dashboards to uncover some interesting alphas. Most on-chain data is tracked on both of these platforms—all you need to do is find the right dashboard, take notes of the different growth metrics you notice, and build your thesis around a coin using that data to reach better due diligence,” Malviya concluded.
Those armed with solid research stand the best chance of catching the next altcoin season winner.
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