Blockworks Research analyst Shaunda Devens argued in a recent X post that Hyperliquid’s retreat to around $52 marks a return to a more realistic valuation after a flow-driven rally carried the token well above its fundamentals.
HYPE has ranked among the market’s stronger performers this year, climbing against the broader downturn at several points and still holding a year-to-date gain near 101%, which increased attention on how far the current pullback might run.
Devens traced the run-up to concentrated buying by Hyperliquid Strategies [PURR], the digital-asset treasury accumulating 11.12 million HYPE at a pace often above $100 million per week.
The accumulation left the treasury holding close to 10% of HYPE’s circulating supply, the largest share held by any digital-asset treasury in crypto and ahead of Strategy’s 4.5% Bitcoin position built over several years.
News of the AQAv2 upgrade added to the momentum since the framework routes the majority of stablecoin reserve-yield revenue back to the protocol to fund HYPE buybacks. Devens named it alongside the treasury flows as the twin drivers of the move above $50.
Because the rally leaned on the treasury bid and momentum traders instead of fundamentals, Devens saw a clear invalidation, stating that:
“Because the move was largely independent of fundamentals, driven by the DAT bid and momentum traders, with a clear invalidation once that buying stopped, it was fairly clear holders and traders would take profits into these temporarily elevated prices.”
HYPE recently traded largely uncorrelated from the rest of crypto, yet the core business stays heavily tied to on-chain activity. Devens flagged July revenue of $43 million against $92 million in the same month a year earlier as the shift price is now starting to reflect.
HYPE Spot flows still lack a clear accumulation signal
CoinGlass Spot data points to more HYPE leaving exchanges than entering them over the past 30 days, near $22.34 million in net outflows, a reading typically consistent with accumulation as coins move off trading venues.
The gap stays narrow, though, and it holds short of the decisive accumulation needed to push HYPE higher from here.
Until those exchange outflows widen into sustained buying, HYPE’s near-term direction stays unresolved.
Final Summary
- Treasury buying of 11.12M HYPE drove the rally, so the price rolled over once that bid stopped.
- HYPE’s next move hinges on the core business, with July revenue down to $43M from $92M a year ago.