Bitcoin dropped to $59,130 this week, setting a new local low that exceeded the February 6th bottom and sparking two separate relief bounces: 4% on Sunday and 3.44% on Thursday. Aaron examines whether those bounces signal a genuine reversal or simply another pause before the next leg lower. With RSI hitting 5.53, the most extreme oversold reading since November 2018, and a bearish pennant that oddly broke to the upside, the picture is complicated, but the weight of evidence continues to point toward more downside ahead.
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Aaron walks through three free indicators to assess where Bitcoin actually stands. RSI completed a bullish reset by crossing back above 25 with a higher low, a valid conservative entry signal confirmed on Thursday, but volume remains below its moving average and on-balance volume continues to trend sharply bearish with no real sign of capitulation. The comparison to the February low is instructive: that correction featured a single-day 14% drop followed by a 12% bounce the next day, far more decisive than the modest bounces seen this week. The TBO indicator adds further weight to the bearish case, with all four cloud lines pointing down together, TBO support near $63,913 having flipped to resistance, and repeated wicks up into that level failing to produce a close above it. Stablecoin dominance tells the opposite story, with all four TBO lines pointing up and the slow line confirming a strong bullish trend for capital sitting on the sidelines.
For Bitcoin to shift the short-term picture, a close above $64,000 is the minimum requirement, though Aaron expects a sharp rejection near the TBO fast line around $67,000 should price reach that zone. A close below $61,787 would likely trigger the next flush lower. Aaron’s primary downside targets remain $49,000 followed by $38,555, and until Bitcoin reaches at least the first of those levels he considers the bottoming process unfinished. Flexibility is essential as a trader, but the trend remains firmly bearish across every indicator reviewed here.
📖 Chapters 📖
00:00 Bitcoin’s Brutal Week Recap
01:20 RSI Most Oversold Since 2018
03:00 Volume: No Capitulation Signal
04:45 On-Balance Volume Still Bearish
06:15 February vs. Now: Key Differences
08:00 Bearish Pennant Breaks to Upside
09:30 TBO Cloud: All Four Lines Down
11:15 TBO Support Flips to Resistance
13:00 Stablecoin Dominance Confirms Bear
14:30 Key Levels and Aaron’s Targets
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🔔 Disclaimer: The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome.