Peru election review may alter runoff, impact López Aliaga’s presidential bid

Peru’s JEE will review over 4,000 observed tally sheets, potentially altering the runoff outcome. On Polymarket, Rafael López Aliaga’s odds of winning the presidency sit at 16.5% YES, with the review likely to push them lower.

Market reaction

The review comes as Roberto Sánchez has overtaken López Aliaga in the vote count, holding a narrow lead at 11.99% to 11.93%. This shift puts Sánchez in position to face Keiko Fujimori in the June 7 second round. If the JEE’s review confirms Sánchez’s lead, López Aliaga’s chances of advancing shrink further. The market for López Aliaga’s presidential bid is under pressure as traders wait on the JEE’s decision.

López Aliaga’s overall odds of winning are at 16.5% YES, up from 12% the previous day but down from 18% a week ago. That swing tracks directly with uncertainty over whether he makes the runoff at all. The market trades at $1.69M/day face value and $211K in actual USDC, showing strong interest despite the thin margin separating the candidates.

Why it matters

The JEE’s review is the single event most likely to determine whether López Aliaga or Sánchez faces Fujimori. At 16.5%, a YES share pays $1 if López Aliaga wins the presidency, a 6.06x return. But that bet requires López Aliaga to first clear the runoff hurdle, which the JEE review could foreclose entirely.

What to watch

Official announcements from the JEE and ONPE are the next catalysts. Any confirmation of Sánchez’s lead would directly hit López Aliaga’s market odds. JNE press releases and official ONPE statements in the coming days will determine the direction.

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