Prediction market provider Polymarket filed to list parlays in sports event contracts in the U.S. on Wednesday, according to a self-certification filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Polymarket filed to list “combinatorial outcome contracts” on Wednesday, describing these event contracts — the official term for prediction markets — as combining two or more underlying contracts. Moreover, all of the underlying contracts would have to settle to the specific outcome that the user sets.
“Every outcome must be satisfied for the Contract to resolve to $1.00. The Contract resolves to $1.00 if and only if every leg is satisfied. If any single leg is not satisfied, the Contract resolves to $0.00, regardless of the outcomes of any remaining unsettled legs,” the filing said.
Because the contract is self-certified, Polymarket is not so much asking for explicit permission to list these contracts as it is telling the CFTC that it intends to list these products. The document said it would list them “no earlier than May 21, 2026.”
Another exhibit was filed but with Polymarket asking the CFTC to hold this exhibit as confidential due to possible trade secrets or commercial information, according to a second document.
Exchange-traded funds
The Securities and Exchange Commission, which doesn’t directly oversee prediction markets, is looking into what an exchange-traded fund (ETF) around prediction markets might look like, Chairman Paul Atkins said in a statement on Wednesday.
ETFs boost capital formation and investor choice, he said, noting that ETF assets have tripled in the past seven years.
“Novel products raise novel questions, and I appreciate the willingness fund sponsors have shown in delaying the effectiveness of a number of novel ETFs, including event contract ETFs, while we consider the implications,” he said. “To ensure we do this in a transparent and thoughtful manner, I have instructed the staff to seek input from the public on how the Commission should respond to recent market changes.”
Prediction markets have drawn immense scrutiny in Congress and the courts over the past few months, particularly as they’ve expanded into sports leagues. State regulators and gambling firms argue that sports-related prediction markets are infringing on states’ rights to regulate and tax gambling products, since prediction market providers are regulated at the federal level.
The CFTC, for its part, maintains that these products are properly overseen by it under the Commodity Exchange Act. The U.S. Supreme Court is widely expected to take up the issue at some point.
In the meantime, lawmakers are also reviewing prediction markets, though it’s unclear whether a bill will be introduced to address them at this point.
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