By the start of the final week of April, Bitcoin ($BTC) is trading around $78,132, coming right up against the upper boundary of a prolonged descending channel. This week will be decisive for the trend throughout the summer, as technical charts collide with key Federal Reserve decisions.
Popular analyst Aksel Kibar, known for his conservative approach and whose technical analyses have earned recognition from figures such as Peter Brandt, maintains cautious optimism. In his view, the price of Bitcoin is currently at a critical point, but there is a magnet at $86,852 – this is where the 365-day average price lies, acting as the main target of the current impulse.
Why Kibar is waiting for one specific signal to turn bullish
Kibar emphasizes that he will turn outright bullish only after a confident breakout above the upper boundary of the channel. According to him, a move beyond the positive extreme typically triggers a chain reaction and rapid growth.
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In this context, the $76,500 and $72,000 levels remain key support zones. Holding them is a necessary condition for the bullish scenario to play out.
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The calendar of events adds further intrigue. On Wednesday, April 29, the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision, with an expected range of 3.50-3.75%. This meeting is being called historic, as it may be the last for Jerome Powell as head of the institution.
The market is speculating whether he will leave as a hawk, maintain high rates, or soften his rhetoric ahead of his departure on May 15. Immediately after that, on Thursday, April 30, U.S. GDP data will be released.
These figures will answer the main question of the year: has the economy managed to avoid stagflation, or will pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin, intensify?